{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261101VS07",
  "record_slug": "will-the-republican-party-hold-between-1-vol-10183",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-01T14:43:30+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Republican 190, 194 seat band stays a long shot despite fresh volume",
  "telemetry": "17% · $10K 24h",
  "headline": "GOP 190, 194 seats: 17% on $10K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "past_due",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HZZP4JMQ30",
  "target_event_slug": "republican-house-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans win more than 218 House seats in the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x18cc1dd29f0b816135d5337cebae4d1f8b42a2c8b951e893936f35fd235ecc94",
    "question_raw": "Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?",
    "current_price": 0.17,
    "volume_24h_usd": 10183.357645,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 34151.53883500001,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "At 17% on Polymarket, a Republican final count landing in the narrow 190, 194 band is an unlikely but priced outcome.",
    "$10K in 24h is 30% of all-time volume, moderate Election Day interest in fine-grained House seat-count positioning.",
    "This contract pairs with the sub-190 spike (Spike 3), together mapping the full distribution of a wave scenario.",
    "Resolves on the final certified 2026 Republican House seat total."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 10183.357645
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Republicans win more than 218 House seats in the 2",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/republican-house-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-01T14:43:30+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-republican-party-hold-between-1-vol-10183/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-republican-party-hold-between-1-vol-10183.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}