{
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  "record_slug": "will-the-republican-party-hold-exactly-4-vol-249559",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-11-03T07:49:22+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Exactly 48 GOP Senate seats priced as a low-odds bracket at 14%",
  "telemetry": "14% · $250K 24h",
  "headline": "GOP exact 48 seats: 14% on $250K volume",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-11-04",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-93ZW3RYZF7",
  "target_event_slug": "republican-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections-927",
  "event_question": "Will Republicans hold more than 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xb2ce24bdd043abf35f09428cad5e67ffc5d6cae16b7a3556dec55fb539dd1253",
    "question_raw": "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?",
    "current_price": 0.14,
    "volume_24h_usd": 249559.955117,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 469492.165494,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the exact-48-seat bracket at 14%, low probability but above pure tail.",
    "53% of all-time volume arrived today as bracket contracts resolve simultaneously on Election Night.",
    "Flow here is consistent with hedging against the middle scenario between a narrow GOP hold and a broader Democratic sweep.",
    "Resolves on certified 2026 Senate seat count."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 249559.955117
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Republicans hold more than 50 Senate seats after t",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/republican-senate-seats-after-the-2026-midterm-elections-927",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-11-03T07:49:22+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
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    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-republican-party-hold-exactly-4-vol-249559/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-republican-party-hold-exactly-4-vol-249559.json"
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  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
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