{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260924VS06",
  "record_slug": "will-the-republican-party-win-the-co-04-vol-10839",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-24T13:08:49+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Republicans favored at 68% in CO-04 House race on volume push",
  "telemetry": "68% · $11K 24h",
  "headline": "CO-04 House GOP: 68% on $11K Polymarket burst",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-24",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-7T2BJXLWQ5",
  "target_event_slug": "co-04-house-election-winner",
  "event_question": "CO-04 House Election Winner",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x13d25ac2d08197538635b4879303c2e01e1e6f2250eaeca4cd2a81fbf864fb9d",
    "question_raw": "Will the Republican Party win the CO-04 House seat?",
    "current_price": 0.68,
    "volume_24h_usd": 10839.905544,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 25123.117888999997,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "68% odds establish Republicans as solid favorites to hold Colorado's 4th Congressional District.",
    "43% of all-time Polymarket volume on this contract arrived in a single 24h window.",
    "A smaller contract seeing proportionally the largest all-time share suggests a specific local catalyst is in play.",
    "Resolves on the CO-04 House election result."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 10839.905544
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: CO-04 House Election Winner",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/co-04-house-election-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-24T13:08:49+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-republican-party-win-the-co-04-vol-10839/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-republican-party-win-the-co-04-vol-10839.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}