{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260905VS03",
  "record_slug": "will-the-republican-party-win-the-ga-11-vol-10779",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-05T11:35:07+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Republican lock on GA-11 holds through a volume surge at 95%",
  "telemetry": "95% · $11K 24h",
  "headline": "GOP wins GA-11 House seat: 95% on $10K volume surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-Q69VMQDDC9",
  "target_event_slug": "ga-11-house-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the GA-11 House election be won by a Republican candidate in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x707dd8bd283b72a13ec9cf79b18b6238744a9250a8e5e18d9cab9dbbe55db8b2",
    "question_raw": "Will the Republican Party win the GA-11 House seat?",
    "current_price": 0.95,
    "volume_24h_usd": 10779.97262,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 30468.538513999996,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a Republican win in Georgia's 11th district at 95%, near-certain, with minimal residual risk priced in.",
    "24h volume of $10.8K is 35% of all-time flow, a significant single-session share for a safe-seat contract.",
    "GA-11 is a heavily Republican district; unusual volume at this late stage may reflect either late arbitrage or an attempt to test whether any opposing scenario is being priced.",
    "Resolves on the certified winner of the GA-11 general election."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 10779.97262
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the GA-11 House election be won by a Republican ca",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ga-11-house-election-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-05T11:35:07+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-republican-party-win-the-ga-11-vol-10779/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-republican-party-win-the-ga-11-vol-10779.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}