{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261025VS05",
  "record_slug": "will-the-republican-party-win-the-nc-09-vol-19805",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-25T12:57:02+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "GOP odds hold at 63% in NC-09 on renewed trading",
  "telemetry": "63% · $20K 24h",
  "headline": "GOP wins NC-09: 63% on $20K volume",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-25",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-0PM0Y1S600",
  "target_event_slug": "nc-09-house-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the winner of the NC-09 House election be determined by November 3, 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x31727e0e298757e552661f62733cc401c6066b80a7d2607d2ac56b729eb15a00",
    "question_raw": "Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?",
    "current_price": 0.63,
    "volume_24h_usd": 19805.912649999995,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 49899.60765199999,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-03T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "63% prices Republicans as moderate favorites in NC-09, same race where Democrats show 36% on a parallel contract.",
    "Polymarket's $20K 24h volume is 40% of all-time, running alongside the larger Democratic-side NC-09 spike.",
    "Dual-contract volume surge on the same race points to two-sided repositioning, not a one-directional bet.",
    "Resolves on 2026 midterm NC-09 House race certification; prices on both contracts should sum near 100%."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 19805.912649999995
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the winner of the NC-09 House election be determin",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/nc-09-house-election-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-25T12:57:02+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-republican-party-win-the-nc-09-vol-19805/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-republican-party-win-the-nc-09-vol-19805.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
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