{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261023VS02",
  "record_slug": "will-the-republicans-win-the-idaho-senat-vol-105362",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-23T07:49:03+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Traders back Idaho GOP lock on polymarket at near-certainty",
  "telemetry": "97% · $105K 24h",
  "headline": "Idaho Senate GOP Polymarket: 97% on $105K spike",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-23",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-HW8FT0L534",
  "target_event_slug": "idaho-senate-election-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x22e986868fae24a9e7b6fff86e063cc90843c85c4a9dd65b2628bbf5663997c7",
    "question_raw": "Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.969,
    "volume_24h_usd": 105362.516704,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 245897.37426199997,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "97% price on polymarket echoes Kalshi's read, GOP Idaho win treated as a near-certainty across venues.",
    "$105,363 in 24h volume is 43% of all-time, mirroring the Kalshi spike on the same race today.",
    "Cross-venue volume surge on the same contract suggests coordinated positioning or an arbitrage desk active on both books.",
    "Resolves on 2026 Idaho Senate general election."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 105362.516704
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Republicans win the Idaho Senate race in 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/idaho-senate-election-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-23T07:49:03+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-republicans-win-the-idaho-senat-vol-105362/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-republicans-win-the-idaho-senat-vol-105362.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}