{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20261008VS03",
  "record_slug": "will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-abov-vol-16545",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-08T15:10:56+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Odds hold above 50% that October unemployment tops 4.1%",
  "telemetry": "70% · $17K 24h",
  "headline": "U-3 above 4.1% Oct: 70% on $17K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-2X91TW50H2",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3-26oct",
  "event_question": "Unemployment rate U-3, October 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26OCT-T4.1",
    "question_raw": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in October?",
    "current_price": 0.7,
    "volume_24h_usd": 16545.61,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 28457.63,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-02-05T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Market at 70%, majority conviction that the October U-3 print will exceed the 4.1% threshold.",
    "24h volume of $17K is 58% of all-time, a strong session ahead of the October jobs release.",
    "October employment report drops early November; volume surge signals traders loading positions pre-event.",
    "Resolves on BLS October unemployment rate release."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 16545.61
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Unemployment rate U-3, October 2026",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxu3-26oct",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-08T15:10:56+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-abov-vol-16545/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-abov-vol-16545.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}