{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260922VS07",
  "record_slug": "will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-abov-vol-17554",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-22T07:48:31+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "September U-3 above 3.9% stays the strong consensus bet at 91%",
  "telemetry": "91% · $18K 24h",
  "headline": "U-3 above 3.9% in Sept: 91% on $18K volume surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-22",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-720DZC17Y9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3-26sep",
  "event_question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in September?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26SEP-T3.9",
    "question_raw": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in September?",
    "current_price": 0.91,
    "volume_24h_usd": 17554.09,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 55881.9,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices September U-3 unemployment above 3.9% at 91%, the market treats elevated unemployment as a near-done deal.",
    "$17.6K in 24h equals 31% of all-time contract volume, suggesting active pre-release positioning ahead of the September jobs report.",
    "At 91%, fresh volume likely reflects traders locking in consensus ahead of BLS data rather than expressing a contrarian view.",
    "Resolves on official BLS September 2026 U-3 unemployment release."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 17554.09
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in Septe",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxu3-26sep",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-22T07:48:31+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-abov-vol-17554/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-abov-vol-17554.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}