{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260929VS01",
  "record_slug": "will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-abov-vol-39138",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-29T07:47:54+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "U-3 above 3.9% in September holds near-certain odds",
  "telemetry": "94% · $39K 24h",
  "headline": "U-3 Sept above 3.9%: 94% on $39K one-day surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-30",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-720DZC17Y9",
  "target_event_slug": "kxu3-26sep",
  "event_question": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in September?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXU3-26SEP-T3.9",
    "question_raw": "Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in September?",
    "current_price": 0.94,
    "volume_24h_usd": 39138.37,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 102403.11,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T14:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices a 94% probability that September U-3 unemployment prints above 3.9%, reflecting near-consensus conviction.",
    "38% of all-time volume, $39.1K, traded in 24 hours, a notable single-session concentration ahead of imminent resolution.",
    "Contract resolves on the September BLS jobs report, likely due within days given today is September 29.",
    "High price plus rising volume suggests traders are locking in near-certain payouts, not debating the outcome."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 39138.37
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in Septe",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxu3-26sep",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-29T07:47:54+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-abov-vol-39138/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-unemployment-rate-u-3-be-abov-vol-39138.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}