{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260707VS07",
  "record_slug": "will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-fund-vol-15843",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-07T10:52:51+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% post-July sits at long-shot odds",
  "telemetry": "15% · $16K 24h",
  "headline": "Fed funds above 3.75% post-July: 15% on $16K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-PHWX2H6DM5",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26jul",
  "event_question": "Federal funds rate upper bound, July 2026 meeting",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26JUL-T3.75",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Jul 29, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.15,
    "volume_24h_usd": 15843.69,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 38956.44,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2026-08-05T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "15% implies Kalshi traders see residual but minority risk of the Fed funds upper bound clearing 3.75% after July.",
    "$15.8K in 24h, 41% of all-time, is modest in absolute terms but signals renewed rate-path attention.",
    "Consistent with Spike 2 (50+ bps hike at 0%): the market prices a constrained hiking path, not zero risk.",
    "Resolves on the Fed funds upper bound exceeding 3.75% following the July 2026 FOMC decision."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 15843.69
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Federal funds rate upper bound, July 2026 meeting",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxfed-26jul",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-07T10:52:51+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-fund-vol-15843/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-the-upper-bound-of-the-federal-fund-vol-15843.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}