{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG20260730VS00",
  "record_slug": "will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-vol-1254937",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-30T10:21:41+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Fed hold in September stays a coin-flip bet",
  "telemetry": "39% · $1.3M 24h",
  "headline": "Fed Sep hold: 39% on $1.25M surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-08-01",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LZ9Q8BDFL0",
  "target_event_slug": "fed-decision-in-september-762",
  "event_question": "Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in September?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xa3b36b2d6104d34af4e6c6215fc818e43352e78a748fbfb0b85e3a35f71dec9a",
    "question_raw": "Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.39,
    "volume_24h_usd": 1254937.368038,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 2230046.6406769995,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-16T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "39% pricing implies markets lean against a pause, a hike or cut is seen as more likely than no action.",
    "$1.25M in 24h volume equals 56% of all-time, the single largest trading day this contract has seen.",
    "Surge arrives ahead of the September FOMC window as macro data sharpens the stakes on the Fed's next move.",
    "Resolves on the September 2026 FOMC decision; traders are actively repricing hold probability in real time."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 1254937.368038
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Federal Reserve make a decision in September?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fed-decision-in-september-762",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-30T10:21:41+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-vol-1254937/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-vol-1254937.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}