{
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  "record_id": "CMSIG20260817VS01",
  "record_slug": "will-thomas-chalifoux-be-the-republican-vol-16430",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-17T08:38:12+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Chalifoux FL-09 GOP nominee odds hold under 25%",
  "telemetry": "16% · $16K 24h",
  "headline": "Chalifoux FL-09 GOP nominee: 16% on $16K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "resolved",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": "NO",
    "outcome_basis": "resolution_log",
    "final_price": 0,
    "resolved_at": "2026-08-19"
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-98VYGBFP77",
  "target_event_slug": "fl-09-republican-primary-winner",
  "event_question": "Will the Republican primary winner be determined for FL-09 by 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xe368e5e6be50377d08d2af99c9ad18694aef2f3af9ccbf60b1146302c3ee3da1",
    "question_raw": "Will Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09?",
    "current_price": 0.157,
    "volume_24h_usd": 16430.153914000002,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 48442.99274,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-08-18T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "At 16%, Polymarket treats Chalifoux as a clear underdog for the FL-09 Republican nomination.",
    "34% of all-time volume hit in 24 hours, the heaviest single-day flow this contract has seen.",
    "Volume concentration this late in a primary cycle often precedes a polling release or ballot development.",
    "Contract resolves on the FL-09 Republican primary result."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 16430.153914000002
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will the Republican primary winner be determined for FL",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/fl-09-republican-primary-winner",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-17T08:38:12+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-thomas-chalifoux-be-the-republican-vol-16430/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-thomas-chalifoux-be-the-republican-vol-16430.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
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  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
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