{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260823VS00",
  "record_slug": "will-ukraine-re-enter-myrnohrad-by-decem-vol-35916",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-23T08:24:40+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Traders back long odds on Ukraine retaking Myrnohrad",
  "telemetry": "6% · $36K 24h",
  "headline": "Ukraine Myrnohrad reentry: 6% on $35K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-G8QGG1QZ27",
  "target_event_slug": "will-ukraine-re-enter-myrnohrad-by-may-31",
  "event_question": "Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad in 2026? (multi-deadline series)",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x578cfae7575d7d072fc67f12b4920a1aca31050a45f15344674fd37f16f52d42",
    "question_raw": "Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?",
    "current_price": 0.06,
    "volume_24h_usd": 35916.95,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 106433.99087600001,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices a Ukrainian return to Myrnohrad by Dec 31 at just 6%, deep skepticism of near-term offensive success.",
    "24h volume of $35K is 34% of all-time handle, a sharp single-day concentration on a low-liquidity front-line contract.",
    "Surge likely reflects battlefield news flow or Ukrainian operational signals drawing fresh attention to this specific city.",
    "Resolves Dec 31, 2026; at 6%, the market is pricing this as a tail scenario, not a base case."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 35916.95
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad in 2026? (multi-deadlin",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/will-ukraine-re-enter-myrnohrad-by-may-31",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-23T08:24:40+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-ukraine-re-enter-myrnohrad-by-decem-vol-35916/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-ukraine-re-enter-myrnohrad-by-decem-vol-35916.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}