{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260921VS00",
  "record_slug": "will-united-russia-er-gain-the-most-se-vol-7430334",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-21T07:48:00+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "United Russia holds the Duma at near-certainty",
  "telemetry": "100% · $7.4M 24h",
  "headline": "United Russia Duma lead: 100% on $7.4M surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-XS1TS19GP7",
  "target_event_slug": "which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election",
  "event_question": "Which party will gain the most seats in the Russian Parliamentary Election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x502a94e5c525766d5ee7f16c6568131ba1b2cbadb69c703af05a6ef00336ed64",
    "question_raw": "Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?",
    "current_price": 0.996,
    "volume_24h_usd": 7430334.077882989,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 23758117.797354992,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices United Russia at 100% to win the most seats, outcome treated as resolved.",
    "24h volume of $7.4M represents 31% of all-time volume, a major single-session commitment.",
    "Surge likely tied to election cycle confirmation or official results entering the market window.",
    "Contract resolves on next Russian parliamentary election seat totals."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 7430334.077882989
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Which party will gain the most seats in the Russian Par",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/which-party-will-gain-most-seats-in-russian-parliamentary-election",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21T07:48:00+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-united-russia-er-gain-the-most-se-vol-7430334/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-united-russia-er-gain-the-most-se-vol-7430334.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}