{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260917VS07",
  "record_slug": "will-united-russia-win-between-280-and-2-vol-40918",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-17T13:05:20+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "United Russia winning 280-294 Duma seats trades near zero",
  "telemetry": "3% · $41K 24h",
  "headline": "United Russia 280-294 seats: 3% on $41K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-17",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MCHQSDBHW5",
  "target_event_slug": "how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election",
  "event_question": "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x070312637ff200867e1316b2a4e31c7f2492610c78dd0851608c23f6ef9f3d7a",
    "question_raw": "Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?",
    "current_price": 0.033,
    "volume_24h_usd": 40918.448335,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 113804.10734700001,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices just a 3% chance United Russia lands in the 280-294 seat band, near-zero probability.",
    "$41K in 24h is 36% of all-time volume, reflecting fresh but modest engagement on a tail scenario.",
    "The narrow seat range makes this a precision bet; broader United Russia dominance is likely priced elsewhere.",
    "Resolves upon official Russian State Duma election results."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 40918.448335
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russi",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-17T13:05:20+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-united-russia-win-between-280-and-2-vol-40918/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-united-russia-win-between-280-and-2-vol-40918.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}