{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260908VS03",
  "record_slug": "will-united-russia-win-between-295-and-3-vol-10358",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-08T12:34:41+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Heavy trading tests United Russia's 295, 309 seat range at slim odds",
  "telemetry": "5% · $10K 24h",
  "headline": "United Russia 295, 309 seats: 5% on $10K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-08",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MCHQSDBHW5",
  "target_event_slug": "how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election",
  "event_question": "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x0a9bb5f9c32f57b1683bec4170da0a1116876f2bf0665a1ec9bf6c6db76d2f57",
    "question_raw": "Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?",
    "current_price": 0.05,
    "volume_24h_usd": 10358.720291,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 27696.337788999994,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices this seat-band at 5%, traders see a higher or lower outcome as far more likely.",
    "$10.4K in 24h is 37% of all-time volume, a notable spike for a low-probability band contract.",
    "Volume alongside the adjacent 280, 294 band suggests traders are mapping probability across multiple Duma outcome buckets ahead of the election.",
    "Contract resolves on United Russia's official seat count in the next State Duma election."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 10358.720291
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russi",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-08T12:34:41+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-united-russia-win-between-295-and-3-vol-10358/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-united-russia-win-between-295-and-3-vol-10358.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}