{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260919VS03",
  "record_slug": "will-united-russia-win-between-340-and-3-vol-40594",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-19T12:15:36+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "United Russia holding 340-354 Duma seats looks unlikely",
  "telemetry": "30% · $41K 24h",
  "headline": "United Russia 340-354 seats: 30% on $41K",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-19",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-MCHQSDBHW5",
  "target_event_slug": "how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election",
  "event_question": "How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x5ee38949a4ba69f716052e5139b03953e2ecf79e8130d583f92acd87e3c1ca68",
    "question_raw": "Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?",
    "current_price": 0.3,
    "volume_24h_usd": 40594.427544000006,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 149642.020962,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-20T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices United Russia landing in the 340-354 seat band at just 30%, the market leans against this range.",
    "24h volume of $41K is 27% of all-time, a meaningful session for an emerging geopolitical contract.",
    "Low odds suggest traders expect United Russia to either overshoot or undershoot this specific seat bracket.",
    "Resolves on official Russian State Duma election results."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from polymarket API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 40594.427544000006
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russi",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/how-many-seats-will-united-russia-win-in-the-next-russian-legislative-election",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-19T12:15:36+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-united-russia-win-between-340-and-3-vol-40594/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-united-russia-win-between-340-and-3-vol-40594.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}