{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260918VS06",
  "record_slug": "will-xi-jinping-visit-the-united-states-vol-16349",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-18T12:39:43+00:00",
  "semantic_title": "Xi US visit before Nov 1 trades near certainty on fresh volume",
  "telemetry": "96% · $16K 24h",
  "headline": "Xi US visit by Nov 1: 96% on $16K surge",
  "category_tag": "VOLUME_SPIKE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "volume_spike",
  "pre_news_classification": "pre_news",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-18",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-VD0FYJK2D7",
  "target_event_slug": "kxxiusa-26jul07",
  "event_question": "Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXXIUSA-26JUL07-NOV01",
    "question_raw": "Will Xi Jinping visit the United States of America before Nov 1, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.96,
    "volume_24h_usd": 16349.88,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 38431.5,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolves_at": "2026-11-08T15:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "96% price signals the market treats a Xi visit to the US before November 1, 2026 as nearly confirmed.",
    "43% of all-time volume in 24 hours implies a concrete scheduling development or official confirmation is circulating.",
    "At this price, remaining volume likely represents final settlement positioning rather than directional trade.",
    "Resolves if Xi Jinping sets foot on US soil before November 1, 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "volume_anomaly",
      "provenance": "24h + cumulative volume direct from kalshi API; intensity = 24h/cumulative (derived)",
      "field_provenance": {
        "volume_24h_usd": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "intensity": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "volume_24h_usd",
            "volume_cumulative_usd"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 16349.88
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket market record: Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/events/kxxiusa-26jul07",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-18T12:39:43+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-xi-jinping-visit-the-united-states-vol-16349/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/will-xi-jinping-visit-the-united-states-vol-16349.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}