{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026081807",
  "record_slug": "wti-crude-by-dec-31-ladder-implies-80-85-2026-08-18",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-08-18T07:58:59.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "WTI oil by year-end priced in the $80-$85 range",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "WTI crude by Dec 31: ladder implies $80-$85",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-05",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-N12K7YZCV3",
  "target_event_slug": "kxwtidiry-26dec31h1430",
  "event_question": "WTI crude oil price, December 31 2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXWTIDIRY-26DEC31H1430-T85",
    "question_raw": "Will the price of WTI oil be above 85 on December 31, 2026 at 02:30 PM EST?",
    "current_price": 0.32,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "ICE",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-07T22:30:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The prediction market ladder for WTI crude on December 31 implies a central range of $80-$85: 53% above $80 but only 32% above $85.",
    "Iran-Oman escalation and Hormuz uncertainty are consistent with elevated oil price distribution, with the tail showing 17% above $100 and 13% above $120.",
    "The fat upper tail at $100-$120 reflects genuine geopolitical risk premium in the distribution, not a base case.",
    "The 10-year Treasury yield at 4.744% noted in MarketScreener data confirms bond markets are also registering the inflation-risk feedback loop from oil."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "Joseph Wilkins",
          "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/18/treasury-yields-.html",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-08-18T08:30:34+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Treasury yields rose as oil prices gained amid escalating US-Iran tensions and threats against Oman, fueling fresh inflation fears.",
      "publisher": "Joseph Wilkins",
      "published_at": "2026-08-18T07:58:59.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/18/treasury-yields-.html"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Ladder carries no named resolution source in the provided data; the distribution's heavy right tail is the key signal for cross-market inflation risk reads."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "Joseph Wilkins: Treasury yields rise as oil gains and U.S.-Iran tensions fuel inflatio",
      "url": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/18/treasury-yields-.html",
      "published_at": "2026-08-18T07:58:59.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-18T08:30:34+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/wti-crude-by-dec-31-ladder-implies-80-85-2026-08-18/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/wti-crude-by-dec-31-ladder-implies-80-85-2026-08-18.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}