{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG20260603DV02",
  "record_slug": "xai-grok-5-release-k16-p11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-06-03T01:49:11+00:00",
  "headline": "xAI Grok 5 release before Jul 1 2026: Kalshi 16% vs Polymarket 11%",
  "category_tag": "CROSS_VENUE_DIVERGENCE",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "cross_venue_divergence",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-CW5RM996H4",
  "target_event_slug": "kxgrok-grok5",
  "event_question": "Will xAI release Grok 5 before Jul 1, 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x0c61adaf2d0c903081573c305892a84c12701330258d912252eef226faa5c50f",
    "question_raw": "Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.11,
    "volume_cumulative_usd": 50726.60849299994,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle"
  },
  "related_markets": [
    {
      "platform": "kalshi",
      "platform_market_id": "KXGROK-GROK5-26JUL01",
      "question_raw": "Will xAI release Grok 5 before Jul 1, 2026?",
      "current_price": 0.16
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi prices 16%, Polymarket 11%, a 5pp gap with under four weeks to resolution.",
    "Kalshi is higher; volume only $3,884 vs Polymarket's $50,727, Polymarket ~13x more liquid.",
    "Kalshi's elevated print likely reflects illiquidity rather than informed conviction; Polymarket's 11% is the more traded signal.",
    "Resolves on public xAI announcement or verifiable model release before Jul 1, 2026."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "cross_venue_spread",
      "provenance": "CM cross-venue link (claim_sig CMX-967EBBB3FC); prices direct from venue APIs",
      "field_provenance": {
        "kalshi_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "kalshi_api"
        },
        "poly_price": {
          "tier": "direct",
          "method": "polymarket_clob_api"
        },
        "divergence_pp": {
          "tier": "derived",
          "method": "arithmetic",
          "inputs": [
            "kalshi_price",
            "poly_price"
          ]
        }
      },
      "liquidity_context": {
        "poly_vol_24h_usd": 1754.857141,
        "kalshi_vol_24h_usd": 263.04
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ClearMarket cross-venue record: Will xAI release Grok 5 before Jul 1, 2026?",
      "url": "https://clearmarket.fyi/compare/xai-grok-5-release-m-2026-06",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-06-03T01:49:11+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api, polymarket_clob_api",
    "news_context": "retrieval_grounded",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/xai-grok-5-release-k16-p11/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/xai-grok-5-release-k16-p11.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}