{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092106",
  "record_slug": "xi-visits-us-before-2027-polymarket-100-2026-09-21",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Xi Jinping US visit before 2027 fully priced in at 100 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 100%",
  "headline": "Xi visits US before 2027: Polymarket 100%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LKD4XHGN64",
  "target_event_slug": "will-xi-jinping-visit-us-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Xi Jinping visit the US before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xd7e906eaec2c7f66697447785aa1d4fdaa82f536ca533a2bc0d3535b04e832ec",
    "question_raw": "Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.998,
    "volume_24h_usd": 22250.569647000004,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices the Xi Jinping US visit before 2027 at 100%, reflecting that the visit has already occurred or is already confirmed beyond dispute.",
    "Multiple news outlets confirm Xi rolled into the Trump summit on September 21, making this contract effectively resolved in fact even if not yet formally settled.",
    "The companion Kalshi contract on Republicans holding more governorships sits at 64%, unrelated but worth noting that the diplomatic summit has not visibly shifted domestic political pricing.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle will confirm the visit against public record; at 100%, no residual uncertainty remains in the market."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "The Associated Press",
          "source_url": "https://wtop.com/national/2026/09/trump-decries-democrats-as-communists-even-as-he-looks-to-impress-chinas-communist-leader/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21T07:47:18+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Xi Jinping arrived for a Trump summit as China's trade engine showed strong momentum, with both leaders seeking a tariff framework ahead of year-end.",
      "publisher": "The Associated Press",
      "published_at": "2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://wtop.com/national/2026/09/trump-decries-democrats-as-communists-even-as-he-looks-to-impress-chinas-communist-leader/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract at 100% is a lagging confirmation of the confirmed Xi-Trump summit; the market fully priced the visit before or concurrent with the news breaking."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "The Associated Press: Trump decries Democrats as ‘communists,’ even as he looks to impress C",
      "url": "https://wtop.com/national/2026/09/trump-decries-democrats-as-communists-even-as-he-looks-to-impress-chinas-communist-leader/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-21T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-21T07:47:18+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/xi-visits-us-before-2027-polymarket-100-2026-09-21/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/xi-visits-us-before-2027-polymarket-100-2026-09-21.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}