{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026092205",
  "record_slug": "xi-visits-us-before-2027-polymarket-100-2026-09-22",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-22T04:32:52.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Xi Jinping US visit before 2027 fully priced in at 100 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 100%",
  "headline": "Xi visits US before 2027: Polymarket 100%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "lagging",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-22",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-LKD4XHGN64",
  "target_event_slug": "will-xi-jinping-visit-us-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Xi Jinping visit the US before 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0xd7e906eaec2c7f66697447785aa1d4fdaa82f536ca533a2bc0d3535b04e832ec",
    "question_raw": "Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?",
    "current_price": 0.998,
    "volume_24h_usd": 66966.72035500001,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "The Polymarket prediction market prices Xi Jinping visiting the US before 2027 at 100%, indicating the event is treated as already confirmed.",
    "ABC News reporting on a Trump-Xi meeting is consistent with and effectively confirms the Polymarket contract at full pricing.",
    "The companion Kalshi contract on Xi visiting the United States also sits at 98%, showing cross-venue alignment with near-certain consensus.",
    "Resolves via Polymarket's uma_oracle upon documented confirmation of Xi's US presence."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "ABC News",
          "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/trump-xi-tensions-flare-ai-trade-iran-seek-136640292",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-22T07:47:31+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping met amid tensions over AI, trade, and the Iran war but both sides sought stability.",
      "publisher": "ABC News",
      "published_at": "2026-09-22T04:32:52.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/trump-xi-tensions-flare-ai-trade-iran-seek-136640292"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Both Polymarket at 100% and Kalshi at 98% reflect full or near-full pricing ahead of the ABC News confirmation of the meeting."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "ABC News: Trump and Xi see tensions flare over AI, trade and Iran but still seek",
      "url": "https://abcnews.com/Business/wireStory/trump-xi-tensions-flare-ai-trade-iran-seek-136640292",
      "published_at": "2026-09-22T04:32:52.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-22T07:47:31+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/xi-visits-us-before-2027-polymarket-100-2026-09-22/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/xi-visits-us-before-2027-polymarket-100-2026-09-22.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}