{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026070602",
  "record_slug": "year-end-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-07-06",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-07-06T17:18:51.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Year-end Fed funds consensus anchors in 3.50-3.75 percent range",
  "telemetry": "Kalshi ladder",
  "headline": "Year-end Fed funds upper bound seen 3.50-3.75%: Kalshi",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-4ZQLQPNH91",
  "target_event_slug": "kxfed-26sep",
  "event_question": "Federal funds upper bound, end-2026",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "kalshi",
    "platform_market_id": "KXFED-26SEP-T3.75",
    "question_raw": "Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.75% following the Fed's Sep 16, 2026 meeting?",
    "current_price": 0.31,
    "volume_24h_usd": 31.33,
    "arbitration_model": "kalshi_staff",
    "resolution_source": "Federal Reserve Board of Governors",
    "resolves_at": "2026-09-23T18:05:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Kalshi ladder prices 91% above 3.50 percent but only 31% above 3.75 percent, implying the market-implied upper bound sits in the 3.50-3.75 percent range.",
    "Waller's inflation-first framing aligns with this distribution: the market is not pricing a return to restrictive territory above 4 percent, nor rapid cuts below 3.50 percent.",
    "A companion Kalshi ladder for a nearer horizon shows 98% above 3.50 percent and only 19% above 3.75 percent, suggesting the term structure is nearly flat and the market sees little change between now and year-end.",
    "Resolves via Federal Reserve official rate announcements through the final 2026 FOMC meeting."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "tradevae.com",
          "source_url": "http://www.tradevae.com/news/economy/waller-says-inflation-now-the-primary-risk-as-us-labor-market-stabilizes/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-07-08T10:13:38+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active kalshi market"
      },
      "story": "Fed Governor Christopher Waller said inflation is now the primary risk, reinforcing a slow-easing path for the federal funds rate.",
      "publisher": "tradevae.com",
      "published_at": "2026-07-06T17:18:51.000Z",
      "source_url": "http://www.tradevae.com/news/economy/waller-says-inflation-now-the-primary-risk-as-us-labor-market-stabilizes/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Kalshi ladder contract; the tight 3.50-3.75 percent band reflects broad consensus among prediction market participants despite conflicting Fed signals."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "tradevae.com: Waller Says Inflation Now the Primary Risk as U.S. Labor Market Stabil",
      "url": "http://www.tradevae.com/news/economy/waller-says-inflation-now-the-primary-risk-as-us-labor-market-stabilizes/",
      "published_at": "2026-07-06T17:18:51.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-07-08T10:13:38+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "kalshi_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/year-end-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-07-06/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/year-end-fed-funds-upper-bound-seen-3-50-3-75-kalshi-2026-07-06.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}