{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026093007",
  "record_slug": "zcash-orchard-pool-exploited-by-jan-2027-polymarket-6-2026-09-30",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Zcash Orchard pool exploit confirmation stays a long shot at 6 percent",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 6%",
  "headline": "Zcash Orchard pool exploited by Jan 2027: Polymarket 6%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-09-30",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-96QBN5QTG3",
  "target_event_slug": "zcashs-orchard-pool-confirmed-exploited-20260605210804589",
  "event_question": "Will Zcash's Orchard pool be confirmed as exploited by January 1, 2027?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x270d3ef640f23a0908f7a3d477faf063baea28c8e2fd11d36f33b4f8c2ab4176",
    "question_raw": "Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited?",
    "current_price": 0.059,
    "volume_24h_usd": 0,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket puts only 6% odds on Zcash's Orchard pool being confirmed as exploited by January 1, 2027, treating the pool itself as likely intact.",
    "Reports describe stolen funds being routed through Zcash's privacy pool, not a breach of the pool's cryptographic infrastructure -- a distinction the market appears to be pricing.",
    "The news draws attention to privacy-coin exploit concealment mechanics without shifting the contract's probability, suggesting the market reads routing-through as distinct from a protocol exploit.",
    "Resolution via UMA oracle requires confirmation that the Orchard pool itself was exploited, not merely used as a laundering channel -- a high bar given current reporting."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "John Chen",
          "source_url": "https://cryptobriefing.com/bitget-breach-zcash-shielded-laundering/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-09-30T14:32:59+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "Alleged North Korean hackers funneled approximately $3.8 million in Zcash stolen from cryptocurrency exchange Bitget through Zcash's privacy pool to obscure their trail after a $387.5 million exchange breach.",
      "publisher": "John Chen",
      "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://cryptobriefing.com/bitget-breach-zcash-shielded-laundering/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract at 6% resolves via UMA oracle on confirmation of an Orchard pool exploit specifically; laundering activity through the pool does not automatically trigger resolution."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "John Chen: Bitget funds reportedly shielded through Zcash after breach",
      "url": "https://cryptobriefing.com/bitget-breach-zcash-shielded-laundering/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-30T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-30T14:32:59+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/zcash-orchard-pool-exploited-by-jan-2027-polymarket-6-2026-09-30/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/zcash-orchard-pool-exploited-by-jan-2027-polymarket-6-2026-09-30.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}