{
  "$schema": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/signal/v1.json",
  "record_id": "CMSIG2026101108",
  "record_slug": "zelenskyy-out-by-end-2026-polymarket-7-2026-10-11",
  "schema_version": "v0.2.0",
  "provenance_version": "0.2.0",
  "published_at": "2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z",
  "semantic_title": "Odds on Zelenskyy exit by end of 2026 stay low",
  "telemetry": "Polymarket 7%",
  "headline": "Zelenskyy out by end 2026: Polymarket 7%",
  "category_tag": "MOMENTUM_REPRICING",
  "secondary_tags": [],
  "detection_path": "news_cycle",
  "pre_news_classification": "concurrent",
  "status": {
    "state": "live",
    "as_of": "2026-10-21",
    "outcome": null,
    "outcome_basis": null,
    "final_price": null,
    "resolved_at": null
  },
  "target_event_id": "CM-EVT-355Q75KD17",
  "target_event_slug": "zelenskyy-out-as-ukraine-president-before-2027",
  "event_question": "Will Zelenskyy be out as Ukraine president by the end of 2026?",
  "linked_event_ids": [],
  "primary_market": {
    "platform": "polymarket",
    "platform_market_id": "0x51f624dbbf14f9edb575fef1be6f7a303751de70783fa144fce27b957452c803",
    "question_raw": "Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?",
    "current_price": 0.07,
    "volume_24h_usd": 65831.815267,
    "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
    "resolves_at": "2026-12-31T00:00:00Z"
  },
  "related_markets": [],
  "bullets": [
    "Polymarket prices only 7% odds on Zelenskyy leaving the Ukrainian presidency by end of 2026.",
    "Despite Trump's public call for Zelenskyy's replacement, the market treats the outcome as a long shot, not a live probability.",
    "Zelenskyy's defiant response -- vowing continued refinery strikes -- reinforces his political durability as priced by the market.",
    "Companion Polymarket contract on Trump, Putin, and Zelenskyy meeting together before 2027 sits at 6%, suggesting no diplomatic off-ramp is priced either."
  ],
  "atomic_claims": [
    {
      "type": "news_event",
      "field_provenance": {
        "story": {
          "tier": "mediated",
          "method": "exa_search",
          "source": "cbsnews.com",
          "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/zelenskyy-trump-new-ukrainian-president/",
          "retrieved_at": "2026-10-11T14:35:49+00:00"
        }
      },
      "significance": {
        "threshold": 5,
        "threshold_unit": "rank",
        "passed": true,
        "reason": "surfaced in the daily Exa news-cycle scan; mechanically matched to an active polymarket market"
      },
      "story": "President Donald Trump publicly called for a new Ukrainian president, while President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pushed back and vowed to continue striking Russian oil refineries.",
      "publisher": "cbsnews.com",
      "published_at": "2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z",
      "source_url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/zelenskyy-trump-new-ukrainian-president/"
    },
    {
      "type": "pm_response",
      "field_provenance": {
        "notes": {
          "tier": "editorial",
          "method": "llm_judge_cm_signal_v1"
        }
      },
      "notes": "Polymarket contract resolves via uma_oracle; at 7%, the market is effectively pricing Trump's pressure campaign as political noise rather than a structural threat to Zelenskyy's tenure."
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "label": "cbsnews.com: Zelenskyy claps back after Trump calls for new Ukrainian president to",
      "url": "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/zelenskyy-trump-new-ukrainian-president/",
      "published_at": "2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-10-11T14:35:49+00:00"
    }
  ],
  "field_provenance": {
    "pm_data": "polymarket_api",
    "news_context": "exa_search",
    "editorial_judgment": "cm_signal_llm_judge"
  },
  "canonical_urls": {
    "html": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/zelenskyy-out-by-end-2026-polymarket-7-2026-10-11/",
    "json": "https://clearmarket.fyi/signals/zelenskyy-out-by-end-2026-polymarket-7-2026-10-11.json"
  },
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/",
  "_provenance_registry": {
    "direct": "Unaltered extraction from primary venue/source API (e.g., polymarket_clob_api, kalshi_api, BLS, FRED). Highest trust tier.",
    "mediated": "Information fetched via grounded agentic retrieval (e.g., perplexity_grounded). MUST carry source_url to the underlying primary source.",
    "derived": "Algorithmic computation from listed inputs. Chain only as fresh as the oldest input timestamp (see as_of).",
    "editorial": "Interpretive classification produced by a versioned LLM prompt template (prompts auditable in github.com/JDSource/clearmarket/prompts)."
  },
  "_provenance_canonical": "https://clearmarket.fyi/schema/provenance/v1"
}