Will a movie be the most searched item on Google in 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 46 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Odyssey | 2026-12-31 | 41.0% | $2.4K | $31K | A | 0xaf0bd8…f8c2 | ||
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 2026-12-31 | 17.0% | $597 | $29K | A | 0xf7f868…a55f | ||
| Avengers: Doomsday | 2026-12-31 | 10.4% | $653 | $23K | A | 0x5ff702…faaa | ||
| Michael | 2026-12-31 | 4.4% | — | $5.6K | A | 0xabe8da…2bee | ||
| Project Hail Mary | 2026-12-31 | 3.5% | — | $3.7K | A | 0x630076…2812 | ||
| Toy Story 5 | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | — | $50 | A | 0xd7441f…6938 | ||
| Shrek 5 | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | $100 | $171 | A | 0x7ea5f1…7c52 | ||
| The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping | 2026-12-31 | 2.5% | — | $1.5K | A | 0x65b225…8cf6 | ||
| The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $65 | A | 0x9fe263…5f72 | ||
| Minions & Monsters | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $306 | A | 0x5e42c1…4999 | ||
| Wuthering Heights | 2026-12-31 | 1.8% | — | $71 | A | 0x642663…1e1b | ||
| Scream 7 | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $15 | A | 0x7e41e1…b5dc | ||
| Jumanji 3 | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | $36 | $206 | A | 0x11d2d3…ca44 | ||
| Moana | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $15 | A | 0x4db16d…8f53 | ||
| The Devil Wears Prada 2 | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $15 | A | 0x147dce…1b47 | ||
| Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu | 2026-12-31 | 0.9% | — | $140 | A | 0xc8e79f…89dd | ||
| Supergirl | 2026-12-31 | 0.9% | — | $1.6K | A | 0x21a0ba…e7e7 | ||
| Wicked: For Good | 2026-12-31 | 0.5% | — | $2.4K | A | 0x8161db…6bd3 | ||
| Dune: Messiah | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $2.0K | A | 0x2e1603…b5b7 | ||
| Movie A | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe852b1…7833 | ||
| Movie B | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x88861b…e701 | ||
| Movie C | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xebd35e…33f7 | ||
| Movie D | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x92cfbf…c948 | ||
| Movie E | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x2ebbfb…37fb | ||
| Movie F | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xda3ed6…4e6d | ||
| Movie G | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5a3feb…e737 | ||
| Movie H | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc7f8c2…616e | ||
| Movie I | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x44c215…aa5b | ||
| Movie J | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe0a102…76f5 | ||
| Movie K | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x99896c…8cd8 | ||
| Movie L | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf65fda…f7c6 | ||
| Movie M | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0166ea…6d05 | ||
| Movie N | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x090da9…effe | ||
| Movie O | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x29c10d…4abf | ||
| Movie P | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xfc71f4…cc93 | ||
| Movie Q | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xeb6c56…f578 | ||
| Movie R | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd91620…7430 | ||
| Movie S | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9c79cf…7b9a | ||
| Movie T | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x35333a…591f | ||
| Movie U | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x2bcb8d…055c | ||
| Movie V | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4e9009…dc9e | ||
| Movie W | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x278437…fb91 | ||
| Movie X | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb08162…a56b | ||
| Movie Y | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd93297…6eaa | ||
| Movie Z | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc7282a…f366 | ||
| Another movie | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc4157f…2c94 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the movie ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search Global “Movies” list for 2026.
The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Entertainment → Movies. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure.
A search term that clearly refers to a term listed in this market (for example, abbreviations, alternate spellings, or closely related phrasing) will count toward the term as listed in this market. If a search term clearly refers to multiple terms listed in this market, this market will resolve according to the term that comes first alphabetically as listed in this market.
This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
platform source field
polymarket.description → trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ sources (2) · single authority
- trends.withgoogle.com source of record venue-listed
- trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/1-searched-movie-on-google-2026-20260730181459/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/1-searched-movie-on-google-2026-20260730181459 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("1-searched-movie-on-google-2026-20260730181459") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-X0YR9JTYF2",
"slug": "1-searched-movie-on-google-2026-20260730181459",
"question": "Will a movie be the most searched item on Google in 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"tech",
"pop-culture",
"google-searches",
"2026",
"movie-ranking"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 46,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 101300,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 84,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "trends.withgoogle.com",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "trends.withgoogle.com",
"url": "trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}