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Atomic wire bulletins · prediction-market surveillance · polymarket, kalshi, others · daily · permanent URLs

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wire feed | 257 active, descending chrono

2026-07-21 · TODAY [ 7 wires ]
10:23 UTC	CMSIG20260721DV01	CROSS-VENUE	Deel IPO pricing decouples on the major prediction desks Polymarket 4% vs Kalshi 10%	POLY · KAL	html · json
10:23 UTC	CMSIG20260721DV00	CROSS-VENUE	Discord IPO before 2027 splits sharply across venues Polymarket 27% vs Kalshi 48%	POLY · KAL	html · json
10:22 UTC	CMSIG20260721VS03	VOLUME-SPIKE	European Ukraine security pledge sits deep in tail-risk territory 8% · $37K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:22 UTC	CMSIG20260721VS01	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders stack tail-risk odds on ETH fading to $1,250 26% · $189K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:22 UTC	CMSIG20260721VS00	VOLUME-SPIKE	Democrats defended as heavy NC Senate capital locks in 91% · $920K 24h	KAL	html · json
10:22 UTC	CMSIG20260721VS02	VOLUME-SPIKE	John James Michigan GOP nominee status draws conviction bids 84% · $102K 24h	KAL	html · json
00:14 UTC	CMSIG2026072108	NEWS-CYCLE	Bitcoin above $100K again holds at deep discount in Kalshi pricing Kalshi 19%	KAL	html · json

2026-07-20 · YESTERDAY [ 6 wires ]
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026072002	NEWS-CYCLE	Fed rate cut above 25 basis points anchors at deep discount Kalshi 8%	KAL	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026072006	NEWS-CYCLE	Hormuz traffic returning to normal by year-end holds near even odds Polymarket 56%	POLY	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026072005	NEWS-CYCLE	Iran uranium enrichment halt by year-end holds below quarter odds Polymarket 21%	POLY	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026072001	NEWS-CYCLE	Fed funds upper bound consensus wavers near 3.75-4.0 percent Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026072008	NEWS-CYCLE	Total 2026 crypto hack value solidifies above one and a half billion Polymarket ladder	POLY	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026072003	NEWS-CYCLE	Gas above $4.60 by year-end fractures below even odds Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json

2026-07-19 · 2 DAYS AGO [ 7 wires ]
09:49 UTC	CMSIG20260719DV00	CROSS-VENUE	Arc token-launch odds split sharply across venues Polymarket 51% vs Kalshi 67%	POLY · KAL	html · json
09:49 UTC	CMSIG20260719VS04	VOLUME-SPIKE	Dan Osborn independent Senate bid absorbs fresh speculative flow 29% · $31K 24h	KAL	html · json
09:49 UTC	CMSIG20260719VS00	VOLUME-SPIKE	Capital writes off Shariatmadari as Iran head of state 0% · $1.5M 24h	POLY	html · json
09:49 UTC	CMSIG20260719VS05	VOLUME-SPIKE	Allam Vancouver mayor bid draws early speculative positioning 27% · $13K 24h	POLY	html · json
09:49 UTC	CMSIG20260719VS02	VOLUME-SPIKE	Republican Senate hold in Iowa draws firm institutional defense 63% · $64K 24h	KAL	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026071902	NEWS-CYCLE	Rate hike consensus wavers despite fresh Fed inflation warnings Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026071907	NEWS-CYCLE	CLARITY Act passage in 2026 holds below even odds at Polymarket Polymarket 43%	POLY	html · json

2026-07-18 · 3 DAYS AGO [ 11 wires ]
09:21 UTC	CMSIG20260718DV03	CROSS-VENUE	Anduril IPO probability fragments across venues at low-odds levels Polymarket 10% vs Kalshi 4%	POLY · KAL	html · json
09:21 UTC	CMSIG20260718DV02	CROSS-VENUE	SHEIN IPO pricing converges near consensus but isolates a seven-point gap Polymarket 85% vs Kalshi 78%	POLY · KAL	html · json
09:20 UTC	CMSIG20260718VS02	VOLUME-SPIKE	Heavy flows discount a Ukraine peace referendum before 2027 7% · $31K 24h	POLY	html · json
09:20 UTC	CMSIG20260718VS01	VOLUME-SPIKE	Crowley Wisconsin Dem nomination sits at long-shot odds 21% · $37K 24h	KAL	html · json
09:20 UTC	CMSIG20260718VS00	VOLUME-SPIKE	Capital writes off Jalili's hold on Iranian leadership 0% · $189K 24h	POLY	html · json
08:54 UTC	CMSIG2026071807	NEWS-CYCLE	Bitcoin above $100K by year-end wavers in thin pricing Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json
01:01 UTC	CMSIG2026071806	NEWS-CYCLE	Iranian regime survival anchors against fall-before-2027 at 9 percent Polymarket 9%	POLY	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026071804	NEWS-CYCLE	October payrolls implied range holds near 70K-80K in Kalshi pricing Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026071808	NEWS-CYCLE	Crypto market structure law by 2027 anchors at modest 38 percent Kalshi 38%	KAL	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026071806	NEWS-CYCLE	Reza Pahlavi recognition pricing holds deep discount amid strikes Kalshi 7%	KAL	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026071807	NEWS-CYCLE	Midterm elections on schedule absorbs Trump integrity pressure Kalshi 83%	KAL	html · json

2026-07-17 · 4 DAYS AGO [ 5 wires ]
09:53 UTC	CMSIG20260717VS00	VOLUME-SPIKE	Capital writes off Khatami as Iran head of state by year-end 0% · $1.4M 24h	POLY	html · json
02:01 UTC	CMSIG2026071706	NEWS-CYCLE	Court fraud ruling on 2020 election stays firmly rejected Polymarket 14%	POLY	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026071704	NEWS-CYCLE	Proof-of-citizenship voting rule wavers at slim 15 percent Kalshi 15%	KAL	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026071706	NEWS-CYCLE	Johnson speaker exit in 2026 holds at low probability Kalshi 9%	KAL	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026071705	NEWS-CYCLE	Hormuz July normalization collapses near zero at 1 percent Polymarket 1%	POLY	html · json

2026-07-16 · 5 DAYS AGO [ 9 wires ]
17:21 UTC	CMSIG20260716VS02	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders stack conviction behind Lamb locking up AZ-05 GOP nod 89% · $12K 24h	POLY	html · json
13:07 UTC	CMSIG2026071607	NEWS-CYCLE	Election interference emergency declaration stays a long shot Polymarket 14%	POLY	html · json
09:21 UTC	CMSIG2026071603	NEWS-CYCLE	Fed rate hike in 2026 consensus fractures near coin-flip Polymarket 51%	POLY	html · json
07:06 UTC	CMSIG2026071602	NEWS-CYCLE	US invasion of Iran pricing holds well below median odds Polymarket 24%	POLY	html · json
03:45 UTC	CMSIG2026071603	NEWS-CYCLE	NATO Article 5 invocation risk holds at deep discount Polymarket 8%	POLY	html · json
03:30 UTC	CMSIG2026071607	NEWS-CYCLE	Tariff sector expansion pricing holds below majority Kalshi 28%	KAL	html · json
01:58 UTC	CMSIG2026071608	NEWS-CYCLE	Ukraine peace deal consensus stays below quarter odds Polymarket 20%	POLY	html · json
01:05 UTC	CMSIG2026071608	NEWS-CYCLE	Bitcoin outperforming gold in 2026 consensus wavers at one-in-four Kalshi 26%	KAL	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026071604	NEWS-CYCLE	Later-meeting Fed funds range anchors near 3.50-3.75 percent Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json

2026-07-15 · 6 DAYS AGO [ 3 wires ]
10:00 UTC	CMSIG20260715VS01	VOLUME-SPIKE	Bitcoin $80K by year-end faces heavy fade pressure at one-in-three 33% · $29K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:00 UTC	CMSIG20260715VS00	VOLUME-SPIKE	China Q2 GDP 4.3, 4.6% band locked in at full conviction 100% · $36K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:00 UTC	CMSIG20260715VS02	VOLUME-SPIKE	Barbalho second-place finish written off, capital stacks against 0% · $11K 24h	POLY	html · json

2026-07-14 · 7 DAYS AGO [ 7 wires ]
18:40 UTC	CMSIG2026071407	NEWS-CYCLE	South Carolina 6th District new House winner nears full pricing Kalshi 92%	KAL	html · json
13:13 UTC	CMSIG2026071403	NEWS-CYCLE	Nonfarm productivity above 3 percent in 2026 anchors near even odds Kalshi 45%	KAL	html · json
09:55 UTC	CMSIG20260714VS01	VOLUME-SPIKE	Bitcoin $85K by year-end sits deep in tail-risk territory 21% · $26K 24h	POLY	html · json
09:55 UTC	CMSIG20260714VS04	VOLUME-SPIKE	Rodriguez Wisconsin primary bid draws skeptical capital at 17% 17% · $11K 24h	POLY	html · json
09:55 UTC	CMSIG20260714VS03	VOLUME-SPIKE	Above-3.8% June CPI absorbs heavy capital near resolution 29% · $22K 24h	KAL	html · json
09:55 UTC	CMSIG20260714VS00	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders lock in June CPI breach above 3.6% as near-certainty 99% · $80K 24h	KAL	html · json
05:01 UTC	CMSIG2026071405	NEWS-CYCLE	CPI above 3.7 percent for year ending July nears consensus Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json

2026-07-13 · 8 DAYS AGO [ 10 wires ]
22:26 UTC	CMSIG2026071303	NEWS-CYCLE	Rate path under Chair Warsh wavers near 3.5-3.75 percent Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json
10:57 UTC	CMSIG20260713DV02	CROSS-VENUE	Databricks listing odds bridge inversely across venues Polymarket 13% vs Kalshi 6%	POLY · KAL	html · json
10:56 UTC	CMSIG20260713VS00	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders write off Pourmohammadi as Iran head of state by year-end 0% · $1.3M 24h	POLY	html · json
10:56 UTC	CMSIG20260713VS01	VOLUME-SPIKE	Heavy flows defend MBS retaining de facto Saudi leadership by December 5% · $51K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:56 UTC	CMSIG20260713VS02	VOLUME-SPIKE	Robinhood funded-customer beat sits near certainty ahead of Q2 print 98% · $16K 24h	KAL	html · json
08:30 UTC	CMSIG2026071304	NEWS-CYCLE	Bitcoin floor at $60K by year-end fractures toward lower range Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json
02:15 UTC	CMSIG2026071302	NEWS-CYCLE	Core CPI pricing anchors near 2.7-2.8 percent ahead of hot print Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026071301	NEWS-CYCLE	Near-term hike consensus hardens on Waller urgency signal Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026071307	NEWS-CYCLE	McConnell Senate resignation before midterms holds as a quarter-odds bet Kalshi 25%	KAL	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026071303	NEWS-CYCLE	US strikes 8-plus countries in 2026 prices below the threshold Polymarket ladder	POLY	html · json

2026-07-12 · 9 DAYS AGO [ 7 wires ]
09:49 UTC	CMSIG20260712DV04	CROSS-VENUE	Stripe IPO-before-2027 bridges diverge, higher on the thin desk Polymarket 5% vs Kalshi 10%	POLY · KAL	html · json
09:48 UTC	CMSIG20260712VS02	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders discount Trump's UFC 329 appearance as near-zero risk 1% · $87K 24h	KAL	html · json
09:48 UTC	CMSIG20260712VS00	VOLUME-SPIKE	Motahari head-of-state bid written off by Iran watchers 0% · $571K 24h	POLY	html · json
09:48 UTC	CMSIG20260712VS03	VOLUME-SPIKE	Graham Senate majority leader bid priced into long-shot territory 1% · $42K 24h	POLY	html · json
09:48 UTC	CMSIG20260712VS04	VOLUME-SPIKE	Republicans defend South Carolina Senate seat at heavy odds 81% · $50K 24h	KAL	html · json
09:48 UTC	CMSIG20260712VS06	VOLUME-SPIKE	Core CPI above 2.6% for June year, near-certain settlement 99% · $14K 24h	KAL	html · json
01:26 UTC	CMSIG2026071208	NEWS-CYCLE	SAVE Act becoming law prices as a deep long-shot on Kalshi Kalshi 8%	KAL	html · json

2026-07-11 · 10 DAYS AGO [ 3 wires ]
09:24 UTC	CMSIG20260711VS01	VOLUME-SPIKE	SRZP Duma plurality: capital stacks against opposition path 0% · $376K 24h	POLY	html · json
09:24 UTC	CMSIG20260711VS00	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders write off Civic Platform's Duma plurality bid 0% · $413K 24h	POLY	html · json
09:24 UTC	CMSIG20260711VS03	VOLUME-SPIKE	Heavy flows defend the Kim Jong Un leadership status quo 0% · $35K 24h	POLY	html · json

2026-07-10 · 11 DAYS AGO [ 11 wires ]
16:23 UTC	CMSIG2026071001	NEWS-CYCLE	Fed rate hike consensus firms on tariff-driven inflation data Kalshi 54%	KAL	html · json
15:53 UTC	CMSIG2026071006	NEWS-CYCLE	Institutional housing investment bill nears full resolution pricing Kalshi 100%	KAL	html · json
10:50 UTC	CMSIG20260710VS01	VOLUME-SPIKE	Heavy flows defend the 'no early exit' read on listed leaders 0% · $2.5M 24h	POLY	html · json
10:50 UTC	CMSIG20260710VS00	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders write off Mousavian as Iran's next head of state 0% · $2.5M 24h	POLY	html · json
10:50 UTC	CMSIG20260710VS07	VOLUME-SPIKE	Greg Stanton stacks as dominant AZ-04 Democratic nominee 94% · $12K 24h	KAL	html · json
10:50 UTC	CMSIG20260710VS05	VOLUME-SPIKE	French left primary flows defend a confirmed primary outcome at 74% 74% · $13K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:50 UTC	CMSIG20260710VS06	VOLUME-SPIKE	Conviction above 3.50% priced deep in the money as flows accelerate 98% · $15K 24h	KAL	html · json
10:50 UTC	CMSIG20260710VS04	VOLUME-SPIKE	Rates capital stacks the 3.00% floor as unthreatened into next FOMC 99% · $21K 24h	KAL	html · json
10:50 UTC	CMSIG20260710VS02	VOLUME-SPIKE	Rates market stacks conviction above 3.25% through next FOMC 99% · $64K 24h	KAL	html · json
09:40 UTC	CMSIG2026071003	NEWS-CYCLE	Recession by year-end consensus holds at deep discount Polymarket 11%	POLY	html · json
04:00 UTC	CMSIG2026071004	NEWS-CYCLE	Election emergency declaration pricing holds skeptical Kalshi 23%	KAL	html · json

2026-07-09 · 12 DAYS AGO [ 6 wires ]
10:57 UTC	CMSIG20260709VS04	VOLUME-SPIKE	Rates desks defend near-even odds on a Fed hike by October 46% · $83K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:57 UTC	CMSIG20260709VS01	VOLUME-SPIKE	Díaz-Canel departure before 2027 seen as remote by heavy flows 0% · $615K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:57 UTC	CMSIG20260709VS03	VOLUME-SPIKE	Missouri D4 drought by early July draws deep-conviction hedging 71% · $64K 24h	KAL	html · json
10:57 UTC	CMSIG20260709VS05	VOLUME-SPIKE	Market discounts any >25bps Fed move at July 2026 meeting 1% · $14K 24h	KAL	html · json
02:12 UTC	CMSIG2026070908	NEWS-CYCLE	Platner-plus-Dem-win combo holds at modest discount in Maine Kalshi 64%	KAL	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026070908	NEWS-CYCLE	National Bitcoin Reserve creation skepticism holds at low odds Kalshi 13%	KAL	html · json

2026-07-08 · 13 DAYS AGO [ 8 wires ]
10:14 UTC	CMSIG20260708VS00	VOLUME-SPIKE	Capital writes off Abbas departure before 2027 0% · $5.2M 24h	POLY	html · json
10:14 UTC	CMSIG20260708VS02	VOLUME-SPIKE	Fed hike by September sits at 35% on fresh flows 35% · $60K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:14 UTC	CMSIG20260708VS03	VOLUME-SPIKE	Bahrain regime flows defend stability through year-end 5% · $35K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:14 UTC	CMSIG20260708VS04	VOLUME-SPIKE	Bardella ballot access fades to 8% on heavy volume 8% · $11K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:14 UTC	CMSIG20260708VS05	VOLUME-SPIKE	Le Pen ballot eligibility defended at 89% conviction 89% · $11K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:14 UTC	CMSIG20260708VS06	VOLUME-SPIKE	Kalshi flows target Le Pen 2027 win at 35% 35% · $12K 24h	KAL	html · json
10:14 UTC	CMSIG20260708VS01	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders stack Le Pen 2027 conviction at 27% 27% · $363K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:14 UTC	CMSIG20260708VS07	VOLUME-SPIKE	ECB July hold priced near certainty at 98% 98% · $21K 24h	POLY	html · json

2026-07-07 · 14 DAYS AGO [ 8 wires ]
10:52 UTC	CMSIG20260707VS05	VOLUME-SPIKE	UAE-Saudi diplomatic rupture in 2026 stays deep in tail risk 4% · $58K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:52 UTC	CMSIG20260707VS06	VOLUME-SPIKE	Platner nominee plus Democratic general win priced as coin-flip 60% · $91K 24h	KAL	html · json
10:52 UTC	CMSIG20260707VS03	VOLUME-SPIKE	Maine Senate Democratic hold sits at narrow majority odds 57% · $274K 24h	KAL	html · json
10:52 UTC	CMSIG20260707VS00	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders price Platner exit as near-certain in Maine Senate 91% · $1.9M 24h	KAL	html · json
10:52 UTC	CMSIG20260707VS04	VOLUME-SPIKE	Polymarket stacks Democratic Maine Senate odds at 60% 60% · $149K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:52 UTC	CMSIG20260707VS02	VOLUME-SPIKE	Fed 50+ bps July hike fades to zero as traders absorb guidance 0% · $2.3M 24h	POLY	html · json
10:52 UTC	CMSIG20260707VS07	VOLUME-SPIKE	Fed funds upper bound above 3.75% post-July sits at long-shot odds 15% · $16K 24h	KAL	html · json
10:00 UTC	CMSIG2026070705	NEWS-CYCLE	Graham Platner dropout consensus hardens near full pricing Kalshi 92%	KAL	html · json

2026-07-06 · 15 DAYS AGO [ 4 wires ]
16:51 UTC	CMSIG2026070605	NEWS-CYCLE	Reconciliation passage in 2026 holds near full pricing Kalshi 82%	KAL	html · json
12:00 UTC	CMSIG20260706VS00	VOLUME-SPIKE	Capital writes off Sheinbaum exit before 2027 0% · $773K 24h	POLY	html · json
12:00 UTC	CMSIG20260706VS02	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders stack against Ahmadinejad Iran return by year-end 0% · $200K 24h	POLY	html · json
06:59 UTC	CMSIG2026070606	NEWS-CYCLE	US negative GDP in 2026 remains a low-conviction fringe bet Polymarket 8%	POLY	html · json

2026-07-05 · 16 DAYS AGO [ 3 wires ]
18:03 UTC	CMSIG2026070507	NEWS-CYCLE	Haley Stevens second-place Michigan primary finish hardens sharply Kalshi 88%	KAL	html · json
10:08 UTC	CMSIG20260705VS00	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders write off Milei as next leader out before 2027 0% · $2.3M 24h	POLY	html · json
02:47 UTC	CMSIG2026070505	NEWS-CYCLE	Trump NATO summit attendance nears full pricing Polymarket 99%	POLY	html · json

2026-07-04 · 17 DAYS AGO [ 5 wires ]
18:07 UTC	CMSIG2026070406	NEWS-CYCLE	June CPI monthly change consensus anchors near negative territory Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json
18:00 UTC	CMSIG2026070407	NEWS-CYCLE	Satoshi Bitcoin movement by year-end consensus holds deeply skeptical Polymarket 6%	POLY	html · json
10:06 UTC	CMSIG20260704DV03	CROSS-VENUE	Applied Intuition IPO decouples across venues on thin flow Polymarket 18% vs Kalshi 11%	POLY · KAL	html · json
10:05 UTC	CMSIG20260704VS02	VOLUME-SPIKE	Tail risk stacks in US-ally nuclear acquisition by 2027 6% · $57K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:05 UTC	CMSIG20260704VS00	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders write off Netanyahu as next leader out before 2027 0% · $2.4M 24h	POLY	html · json

2026-07-03 · 18 DAYS AGO [ 3 wires ]
10:32 UTC	CMSIG20260703VS00	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders write off a Trump pre-2027 exit as near-zero 0% · $1.3M 24h	POLY	html · json
10:32 UTC	CMSIG20260703VS02	VOLUME-SPIKE	Heavy flows defend an 8% Fed hike probability into July 8% · $82K 24h	POLY	html · json
04:02 UTC	CMSIG2026070303	NEWS-CYCLE	Senate Republican re-election losses consensus wavers near 38% Kalshi 38%	KAL	html · json

2026-07-02 · 19 DAYS AGO [ 9 wires ]
13:28 UTC	CMSIG2026070201	NEWS-CYCLE	Fed funds upper bound consensus firms at 3.50-3.75 percent Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json
12:30 UTC	CMSIG2026070203	NEWS-CYCLE	Mortgage rate peak pricing anchors near 6.8 to 6.9 percent Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json
10:35 UTC	CMSIG20260702VS05	VOLUME-SPIKE	Victor Marx GOP Colorado governor nomination sits near certainty 96% · $145K 24h	KAL	html · json
10:35 UTC	CMSIG20260702VS06	VOLUME-SPIKE	Macro desks stack conviction on a 20K-plus June jobs print 94% · $20K 24h	KAL	html · json
10:35 UTC	CMSIG20260702VS03	VOLUME-SPIKE	Market discounts Lecornu as the next European leader out before 2027 0% · $1.1M 24h	POLY	html · json
10:35 UTC	CMSIG20260702VS07	VOLUME-SPIKE	Tesla Q2 delivery beat above 450K sits deep in high-conviction territory 90% · $35K 24h	KAL	html · json
10:35 UTC	CMSIG20260702VS00	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders write off Zelenskyy as the next leader out before 2027 0% · $2M 24h	POLY	html · json
10:04 UTC	CMSIG2026070203	NEWS-CYCLE	September CPI monthly gain consensus wavers near 0.30-0.40 percent Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json
05:22 UTC	CMSIG2026070208	NEWS-CYCLE	Solana end-2026 price consensus anchors in the $100-150 range Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json

2026-07-01 · 20 DAYS AGO [ 8 wires ]
16:20 UTC	CMSIG2026070102	NEWS-CYCLE	Market absorbs Warsh independence stance, Trump-fires-Powell risk stays low Kalshi 9%	KAL	html · json
11:21 UTC	CMSIG20260701VS01	VOLUME-SPIKE	Heavy flows discount Lebanon-Israel recognition after June 30 3% · $513K 24h	POLY	html · json
11:21 UTC	CMSIG20260701VS02	VOLUME-SPIKE	Market stacks against Ohana ascending to Israeli PM 0% · $538K 24h	POLY	html · json
11:21 UTC	CMSIG20260701VS04	VOLUME-SPIKE	Kirkmeyer flows challenge Marx's Colorado GOP lead 45% · $92K 24h	KAL	html · json
11:21 UTC	CMSIG20260701VS05	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders discount ETH crashing to $500 by year-end 9% · $76K 24h	POLY	html · json
11:21 UTC	CMSIG20260701VS06	VOLUME-SPIKE	Flows test Alito retirement odds ahead of recess 34% · $47K 24h	KAL	html · json
11:21 UTC	CMSIG20260701VS07	VOLUME-SPIKE	Fed funds upper bound above 2.75% sits near certainty 99% · $49K 24h	KAL	html · json
10:00 UTC	CMSIG2026070107	NEWS-CYCLE	Paxton Republican Texas Senate win consensus holds at majority odds Kalshi 62%	KAL	html · json

2026-06-30 · 21 DAYS AGO [ 14 wires ]
23:17 UTC	CMSIG2026063004	NEWS-CYCLE	Fed rate cut before 2027 consensus wavers at low conviction Kalshi 22%	KAL	html · json
18:18 UTC	CMSIG2026063001	NEWS-CYCLE	June unemployment rate consensus anchors near 4.2 to 4.3 percent Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json
16:30 UTC	CMSIG2026063004	NEWS-CYCLE	Tech layoffs outpacing 2025 levels solidifies near full pricing Kalshi 91%	KAL	html · json
14:35 UTC	CMSIG2026063006	NEWS-CYCLE	SCOTUS tariff case by year-end holds at low conviction Kalshi 22%	KAL	html · json
10:55 UTC	CMSIG20260630VS00	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders price Vučić exit as settled fact by June 30 100% · $1.3M 24h	POLY	html · json
10:55 UTC	CMSIG20260630VS04	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders stack modest conviction on a Tesla-SpaceX merger announcement 11% · $76K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:55 UTC	CMSIG20260630VS01	VOLUME-SPIKE	Capital writes off a U.S.-Ukraine security deal by June 30 0% · $538K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:55 UTC	CMSIG20260630VS05	VOLUME-SPIKE	Flows test the ceiling on U.S. ground force deployment in Gaza 13% · $70K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:55 UTC	CMSIG20260630VS07	VOLUME-SPIKE	Kiros commands strong capital backing for the CO-01 Democratic nod 78% · $70K 24h	KAL	html · json
10:55 UTC	CMSIG20260630VS02	VOLUME-SPIKE	Heavy flows defend the near-zero odds on a 50 bps July cut 1% · $1.4M 24h	POLY	html · json
10:55 UTC	CMSIG20260630VS06	VOLUME-SPIKE	XRP all-time high by today written off at zero 0% · $55K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:46 UTC	CMSIG2026063002	NEWS-CYCLE	BTC above $75K by June 30 sits at near-zero pricing Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json
10:08 UTC	CMSIG2026063005	NEWS-CYCLE	Senate control balance fractures toward Republican edge Polymarket 41%	POLY	html · json
10:00 UTC	CMSIG2026063004	NEWS-CYCLE	June payrolls consensus anchors in 100K-125K implied range Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json

2026-06-29 · 22 DAYS AGO [ 10 wires ]
20:14 UTC	CMSIG2026062906	NEWS-CYCLE	Hormuz traffic normal by June 30 sits at zero pricing Polymarket 0%	POLY	html · json
12:30 UTC	CMSIG20260629DV00	CROSS-VENUE	Tesla-SpaceX merger stance splits sharply across venues Polymarket 28% vs Kalshi 10%	POLY · KAL	html · json
12:29 UTC	CMSIG20260629VS03	VOLUME-SPIKE	Skeptical flows defend against Russian Myropillia capture 6% · $20K 24h	POLY	html · json
08:27 UTC	CMSIG2026062907	NEWS-CYCLE	2Y Treasury month-end yield consensus anchors at 4.10-4.15 percent Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json
04:52 UTC	CMSIG2026062901	NEWS-CYCLE	Iranian regime survival consensus holds at full pricing Polymarket 100%	POLY	html · json
01:47 UTC	CMSIG20260629VS04	VOLUME-SPIKE	H200 compute pricing above $4.79 commands near-certain flows 96% · $18K 24h	KAL	html · json
01:47 UTC	CMSIG20260629VS02	VOLUME-SPIKE	Flows defend Victor Marx as Colorado GOP primary locks in 93% · $41K 24h	POLY	html · json
01:47 UTC	CMSIG20260629VS03	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders write off Lai Ching-te removal through year-end 4% · $34K 24h	POLY	html · json
01:47 UTC	CMSIG20260629VS07	VOLUME-SPIKE	US-Cuba economic deal sits in deep skepticism territory 10% · $14K 24h	POLY	html · json
01:47 UTC	CMSIG20260629VS06	VOLUME-SPIKE	CDU Berlin plurality faces contested capital with even odds 42% · $17K 24h	POLY	html · json

2026-06-28 · 23 DAYS AGO [ 6 wires ]
23:54 UTC	CMSIG2026062805	NEWS-CYCLE	SCOTUS mail ballot bar consensus hardens near 80 percent Kalshi 79%	KAL	html · json
10:25 UTC	CMSIG20260628VS03	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders defend the zero on Kushner entering Iran by June 30 0% · $247K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:25 UTC	CMSIG20260628VS04	VOLUME-SPIKE	Heavy flows defend H200 compute above $4.99 into June close 94% · $41K 24h	KAL	html · json
10:25 UTC	CMSIG20260628VS00	VOLUME-SPIKE	Markets write off Netanyahu entering Iran by June 30 0% · $4.9M 24h	POLY	html · json
10:25 UTC	CMSIG20260628VS06	VOLUME-SPIKE	H200 at $4.19 floor absorbs final-day selling at near-certain levels 96% · $18K 24h	KAL	html · json
10:02 UTC	CMSIG2026062807	NEWS-CYCLE	SCOTUS Birthright Citizenship EO strike-down nears full pricing Polymarket 94%	POLY	html · json

2026-06-27 · 24 DAYS AGO [ 10 wires ]
10:03 UTC	CMSIG20260627VS01	VOLUME-SPIKE	Solana all-time-high by June 30 sits in dead-money territory 0% · $223K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:03 UTC	CMSIG20260627VS00	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders write off a Vance Iran entry by June 30 0% · $751K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:03 UTC	CMSIG20260627VS02	VOLUME-SPIKE	Capital stacks on Tesla falling short of 475K Q2 deliveries 26% · $24K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:03 UTC	CMSIG20260627VS05	VOLUME-SPIKE	Tesla 400K, 425K delivery band targeted by late Q2 capital 29% · $10K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:03 UTC	CMSIG20260627VS04	VOLUME-SPIKE	WTI $70 floor by year-end defended at near-certainty 99% · $21K 24h	KAL	html · json
10:03 UTC	CMSIG20260627VS03	VOLUME-SPIKE	Heavy flows lean against a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026 5% · $35K 24h	POLY	html · json
01:36 UTC	CMSIG20260627VS07	VOLUME-SPIKE	Crude Oil $35 June low dismissed as an extreme tail scenario 0% · $32K 24h	POLY	html · json
01:36 UTC	CMSIG20260627VS03	VOLUME-SPIKE	Gold $6,200 June settle written off with three days left 0% · $131K 24h	POLY	html · json
01:36 UTC	CMSIG20260627VS04	VOLUME-SPIKE	Silver $120 June expiry stacked firmly in the 'No' column 0% · $25K 24h	POLY	html · json
01:36 UTC	CMSIG20260627VS05	VOLUME-SPIKE	US annexation in 2026 sits in deep tail territory at 7% 7% · $45K 24h	POLY	html · json

2026-06-26 · 25 DAYS AGO [ 12 wires ]
16:02 UTC	CMSIG2026062607	NEWS-CYCLE	Blue tsunami in 2026 wavers below majority pricing at midterms Kalshi 36%	KAL	html · json
12:51 UTC	CMSIG2026062608	NEWS-CYCLE	US CBDC ban by end of 2026 nears full pricing on Congress move Kalshi 97%	KAL	html · json
10:48 UTC	CMSIG20260626DV01	CROSS-VENUE	Ramp IPO pricing decouples on the major prediction desks Polymarket 11% vs Kalshi 19%	POLY · KAL	html · json
10:48 UTC	CMSIG20260626VS04	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders stack near-certainty on $1.8T SpaceX floor 98% · $727K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:48 UTC	CMSIG20260626VS02	VOLUME-SPIKE	SpaceX IPO valuation battle sits squarely at $2.2T 67% · $722K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:48 UTC	CMSIG20260626VS05	VOLUME-SPIKE	SpaceX $2.4T target sits in contested tail territory 21% · $696K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:48 UTC	CMSIG20260626VS03	VOLUME-SPIKE	Heavy flows defend a $2T SpaceX IPO floor 93% · $926K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:48 UTC	CMSIG20260626VS06	VOLUME-SPIKE	Market discounts a $4T SpaceX IPO as implausible 0% · $429K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:48 UTC	CMSIG20260626VS07	VOLUME-SPIKE	Kenyon underdog positioning draws capital in Makerfield 27% · $332K 24h	POLY	html · json
10:48 UTC	CMSIG20260626VS00	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders lock in Project Freedom restart by June 30 100% · $3.1M 24h	POLY	html · json
10:48 UTC	CMSIG20260626VS01	VOLUME-SPIKE	Capital writes off any Musk acquisition of OnlyFans 0% · $657K 24h	POLY	html · json
02:35 UTC	CMSIG2026062606	NEWS-CYCLE	Inflation surge in 2026 above 4.5 percent nears pricing out Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json

2026-06-25 · 26 DAYS AGO [ 2 wires ]
21:47 UTC	CMSIG2026062506	NEWS-CYCLE	Any Hormuz transit by June 30 consensus wavers at long-shot Polymarket 28%	POLY	html · json
20:16 UTC	CMSIG2026062505	NEWS-CYCLE	Iran unrestricted Hormuz shipping by June 30 fractures Polymarket 31%	POLY	html · json

2026-06-24 · 27 DAYS AGO [ 5 wires ]
14:18 UTC	CMSIG2026062401	NEWS-CYCLE	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30 wavers on inspection dispute Polymarket 51%	POLY	html · json
10:47 UTC	CMSIG20260624BD00	BENCHMARK-DRIFT	Traders pile into US GDP breaking above 2% 76% · Real GDP growth, annualized (FRED) 1.6%	KAL	html · json
03:50 UTC	CMSIG2026062403	NEWS-CYCLE	Iran war powers resolution passage odds anchored near zero Polymarket 10%	POLY	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026062405	NEWS-CYCLE	Iran ends uranium enrichment by June 30 pricing holds deep discount Polymarket 24%	POLY	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026062406	NEWS-CYCLE	Progressive Senate primary sweep consensus wavers at majority odds Kalshi 56%	KAL	html · json

2026-06-23 · 28 DAYS AGO [ 2 wires ]
18:10 UTC	CMSIG2026062303	NEWS-CYCLE	Trump approval pricing breaks away below 43 percent Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json
05:22 UTC	CMSIG2026062303	NEWS-CYCLE	Iran uranium enrichment halt by July 31 stays well below even odds Polymarket 29%	POLY	html · json

2026-06-22 · 29 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ]
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026062206	NEWS-CYCLE	Core PCE above zero in May nears full pricing consensus Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json

2026-06-21 · 30 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ]
05:18 UTC	CMSIG2026062103	NEWS-CYCLE	Pre-2027 US-Iran deal consensus anchors above 70 percent Polymarket 71%	POLY	html · json

2026-06-20 · 31 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ]
15:36 UTC	CMSIG2026062005	NEWS-CYCLE	Fed emergency meeting odds hold low despite Warsh guidance vacuum Kalshi 10%	KAL	html · json

2026-06-19 · 32 DAYS AGO [ 2 wires ]
09:25 UTC	CMSIG2026061905	NEWS-CYCLE	Israel-Hezbollah diplomatic meeting pricing near zero amid fresh strikes Polymarket 4%	POLY	html · json
07:53 UTC	CMSIG2026061903	NEWS-CYCLE	BTC end-June floor pricing wavers below $57.5K implied range Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json

2026-06-18 · 33 DAYS AGO [ 2 wires ]
19:54 UTC	CMSIG2026061808	NEWS-CYCLE	ETH end-2026 downside floor pricing nears $1000-$1250 implied range Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026061807	NEWS-CYCLE	Florida 14th House race fractured at dead even pricing Polymarket 51%	POLY	html · json

2026-06-17 · 34 DAYS AGO [ 3 wires ]
06:35 UTC	CMSIG2026061701	NEWS-CYCLE	June Fed funds hold at 3.50-3.75 percent nears full pricing Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json
05:20 UTC	CMSIG2026061708	NEWS-CYCLE	USDC at 50 percent of USDT market cap in 2026 holds at even odds Polymarket 53%	POLY	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026061702	NEWS-CYCLE	Dissent at Warsh debut FOMC anchors at two-thirds odds Kalshi 67%	KAL	html · json

2026-06-16 · 35 DAYS AGO [ 5 wires ]
20:38 UTC	CMSIG2026061608	NEWS-CYCLE	Georgia Senate contest anchors Republican edge at 78 percent Kalshi 78%	KAL	html · json
09:02 UTC	CMSIG2026061605	NEWS-CYCLE	Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30 priced near zero Polymarket 2%	POLY	html · json
04:48 UTC	CMSIG2026061606	NEWS-CYCLE	Bitcoin June 16 level pricing clusters at $64K to $66K Polymarket ladder	POLY	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026061607	NEWS-CYCLE	Bitcoin near $64K-$66K on June 17 splits the ladder Polymarket ladder	POLY	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026061606	NEWS-CYCLE	Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by year-end wavers near even split Polymarket 47%	POLY	html · json

2026-06-15 · 36 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ]
09:16 UTC	CMSIG2026061504	NEWS-CYCLE	Hormuz transit calls consensus anchors in the 20 to 25 range Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json

2026-06-14 · 37 DAYS AGO [ 2 wires ]
08:00 UTC	CMSIG2026061407	NEWS-CYCLE	Bitcoin above $62K on June 14 commands solid majority in pricing Polymarket ladder	POLY	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026061407	NEWS-CYCLE	Democrats retaking the House in 2026 solidifies near strong consensus Kalshi 79%	KAL	html · json

2026-06-12 · 39 DAYS AGO [ 11 wires ]
14:32 UTC	CMSIG2026061207	NEWS-CYCLE	Gas prices above $4.60 to $4.80 by year-end holds as market midpoint Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json
14:13 UTC	CMSIG2026061208	NEWS-CYCLE	SBF release from custody by year-end wavers near floor pricing Polymarket 5%	POLY	html · json
11:42 UTC	CMSIG20260612DV00	CROSS-VENUE	Grok 5 pre-July release splits sharply across venues Polymarket 6% vs Kalshi 14%	POLY · KAL	html · json
11:42 UTC	CMSIG20260612VS00	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders write off a MicroStrategy Bitcoin sale by May 31 0% · $139M 24h	POLY	html · json
11:42 UTC	CMSIG20260612VS01	VOLUME-SPIKE	Capital stacks behind a US-Iran deal before June 15 14% · $2.5M 24h	POLY	html · json
11:42 UTC	CMSIG20260612VS03	VOLUME-SPIKE	Heavy flows defend Bass as Los Angeles mayor favorite 79% · $1.2M 24h	KAL	html · json
11:42 UTC	CMSIG20260612VS06	VOLUME-SPIKE	Bear capital probes a $55K Bitcoin collapse scenario 14% · $226K 24h	POLY	html · json
11:42 UTC	CMSIG20260612VS05	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders stack conviction on a $65K Bitcoin dip in June 87% · $246K 24h	POLY	html · json
11:42 UTC	CMSIG20260612VS04	VOLUME-SPIKE	$100K Bitcoin by June sits deep in tail-risk territory 0% · $253K 24h	POLY	html · json
11:42 UTC	CMSIG20260612VS07	VOLUME-SPIKE	Market defends Bass-Pratt as the confirmed LA mayor ballot 79% · $258K 24h	KAL	html · json
11:42 UTC	CMSIG20260612VS02	VOLUME-SPIKE	Iowa GOP field folds, Lahn flows defend a locked nomination 100% · $557K 24h	KAL	html · json

2026-06-11 · 40 DAYS AGO [ 2 wires ]
20:48 UTC	CMSIG2026061103	NEWS-CYCLE	August CPI month-over-month consensus anchors near 0.3 to 0.4 percent Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json
04:46 UTC	CMSIG2026061105	NEWS-CYCLE	Any Hormuz ship transit by June 30 consensus wavers at majority Polymarket 58%	POLY	html · json

2026-06-10 · 41 DAYS AGO [ 4 wires ]
09:06 UTC	CMSIG2026061006	NEWS-CYCLE	Inflation surge to 4.5-5 percent in 2026 nears majority pricing Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json
02:11 UTC	CMSIG2026061008	NEWS-CYCLE	Collins as Maine GOP Senate nominee fully absorbed into pricing Kalshi 99%	KAL	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026061008	NEWS-CYCLE	Collins Maine win combined with Paxton Texas win wavers below even odds Kalshi 39%	KAL	html · json
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026061001	NEWS-CYCLE	US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31 wavers at coin-flip pricing Polymarket 45%	POLY	html · json

2026-06-08 · 43 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ]
00:00 UTC	CMSIG2026060806	NEWS-CYCLE	Putin-Zelenskyy June 30 meeting nears zero pricing Polymarket 1%	POLY	html · json

2026-06-06 · 45 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ]
00:02 UTC	CMSIG2026060608	NEWS-CYCLE	California governor primary advance nears full pricing Kalshi 83%	KAL	html · json

2026-06-05 · 46 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ]
18:52 UTC	CMSIG2026060503	NEWS-CYCLE	Peak unemployment below 5 percent holds firm in pricing Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json

2026-06-04 · 47 DAYS AGO [ 6 wires ]
13:27 UTC	CMSIG2026060408	NEWS-CYCLE	Lebanon ceasefire extension announcement wavers at low odds Polymarket 20%	POLY	html · json
11:16 UTC	CMSIG20260604BD22	BENCHMARK-DRIFT	Fed lower bound at 2.75 percent trails well behind FRED rate 5% · Fed funds target rate, upper bound (FRED) 3.75%	POLY	html · json
11:16 UTC	CMSIG20260604BD28	BENCHMARK-DRIFT	Rate path to 5.25 percent detaches sharply from FRED baseline 3% · Fed funds target rate, upper bound (FRED) 3.75%	POLY	html · json
11:16 UTC	CMSIG20260604BD10	BENCHMARK-DRIFT	Fed funds at 4.5 percent end-2026 lags far below FRED rate 3% · Fed funds target rate, upper bound (FRED) 3.75%	POLY	html · json
07:42 UTC	CMSIG2026060407	NEWS-CYCLE	Bitcoin above $68K on June 6 priced a long shot Polymarket 31%	POLY	html · json
01:30 UTC	CMSIG2026060405	NEWS-CYCLE	Bitcoin Jun 5 pricing fractures below $67K-$67.5K range Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json

2026-06-03 · 48 DAYS AGO [ 11 wires ]
19:00 UTC	CMSIG2026060305	NEWS-CYCLE	Iran-Oman Hormuz deal by June 15 priced near-impossible Polymarket 6%	POLY	html · json
12:15 UTC	CMSIG2026060306	NEWS-CYCLE	May ADP payrolls above 100K priced near a coin flip Kalshi ladder	KAL	html · json
01:49 UTC	CMSIG20260603DV01	CROSS-VENUE	Anthropic IPO before 2027 pricing splits across venues Polymarket 70% vs Kalshi 76%	POLY · KAL	html · json
01:46 UTC	CMSIG20260603VS06	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders discount an Israel-Iran peace deal by June 30 19% · $203K 24h	POLY	html · json
01:46 UTC	CMSIG20260603VS03	VOLUME-SPIKE	Heavy flows defend Hormuz normal by June 15 as a long shot 14% · $222K 24h	POLY	html · json
01:46 UTC	CMSIG20260603VS02	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders target US-Iran peace by June 7 as a long shot 29% · $642K 24h	POLY	html · json
01:46 UTC	CMSIG20260603VS00	VOLUME-SPIKE	Bitcoin at $150K by June 30 sits deep in tail-risk territory 1% · $5.8M 24h	POLY	html · json
01:46 UTC	CMSIG20260603VS08	VOLUME-SPIKE	Traders write off Russia capturing all Donetsk by Dec 31 5% · $43K 24h	POLY	html · json
01:46 UTC	CMSIG20260603VS01	VOLUME-SPIKE	Paxton Texas runoff margin above 20 percent near-certain on big flows 99% · $668K 24h	KAL	html · json
01:46 UTC	CMSIG20260603VS07	VOLUME-SPIKE	Nasdaq-100 above 30K before Dec 31 priced near-certain 99% · $63K 24h	KAL	html · json
00:50 UTC	CMSIG2026060306	NEWS-CYCLE	Consensus tilts toward Trump unfreezing Iranian assets by June 30 Polymarket 68%	POLY	html · json

2026-06-02 · 49 DAYS AGO [ 1 wire ]
15:52 UTC	CMSIG2026060204	NEWS-CYCLE	May payrolls above 80K sits near a coin flip in pricing Kalshi 45%	KAL	html · json

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