Will Google's most-searched person in the US be determined by the end of 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 103 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bad Bunny | 2026-12-31 | 12.9% | $542 | $2.2K | A | 0xe613b0…82fb | ||
| Donald Trump | 2026-12-31 | 11.4% | $13K | $30K | A | 0xffa6a9…f943 | ||
| Erling Haaland | 2026-12-31 | 10.2% | $688 | $5.4K | A | 0xca8301…264a | ||
| Lamine Yamal | 2026-12-31 | 9.8% | $99 | $164 | A | 0x27f47f…3121 | ||
| Taylor Swift | 2026-12-31 | 7.2% | $151 | $242 | A | 0xb3090b…daa1 | ||
| Lionel Messi | 2026-12-31 | 7.1% | $145 | $224 | A | 0xf6ebd3…7995 | ||
| Sydney Sweeney | 2026-12-31 | 6.5% | $77 | $186 | A | 0xe37b8a…dd09 | ||
| Nicolás Maduro | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | $16 | $99 | A | 0x205bc7…920a | ||
| Elon Musk | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $60 | A | 0x4c5901…0a56 | ||
| Ariana Grande | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $60 | A | 0x7d8454…21c6 | ||
| JD Vance | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $60 | A | 0x797b1e…1168 | ||
| Gavin Newsom | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | — | $50 | A | 0xd960b7…d6f3 | ||
| Zohran Mamdani | 2026-12-31 | 2.0% | $50 | $60 | A | 0xa67701…22ab | ||
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 2026-12-31 | 1.9% | $69 | $659 | A | 0x03c569…986c | ||
| Robert Downey Jr. | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $10 | A | 0xc20b69…b488 | ||
| Sabrina Carpenter | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $10 | A | 0x4ecf7e…0972 | ||
| Joe Burrow | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $10 | A | 0xb26ccd…3d4a | ||
| Patrick Mahomes | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $10 | A | 0xaf34ab…5011 | ||
| Anthony Edwards | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $10 | A | 0x8437c0…86e7 | ||
| Stefon Diggs | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $10 | A | 0xf99f12…54d9 | ||
| Scottie Scheffler | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $10 | A | 0x8a9719…e386 | ||
| Ja Morant | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $10 | A | 0xd82326…c53e | ||
| Zendaya | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $10 | A | 0x10cd20…973c | ||
| Luigi Mangione | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $10 | A | 0x7ef920…1439 | ||
| Sean 'Diddy' Combs | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $10 | A | 0x7d689c…9b0f | ||
| Pope Leo XIV | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $10 | A | 0x09156d…ce31 | ||
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $10 | A | 0x707fe5…6416 | ||
| Melania Trump | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $10 | A | 0x458271…f33c | ||
| Karoline Leavitt | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $10 | A | 0x031d05…6702 | ||
| Lamar Jackson | 2026-12-31 | 1.0% | — | $10 | A | 0x98d963…4c52 | ||
| Alysa Liu | 2026-12-31 | 0.3% | — | $20 | A | 0x2babb0…d0eb | ||
| Matt Damon | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $20 | A | 0xa95281…d285 | ||
| Kanye West | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $20 | A | 0x904bd1…e705 | ||
| Neymar | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $20 | A | 0xe00111…9124 | ||
| Volodymyr Zelenskyy | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $20 | A | 0xf1e3dc…7751 | ||
| Pedro Pascal | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $10 | A | 0xa14bbd…6fb6 | ||
| Timothée Chalamet | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $20 | A | 0xecd576…e0fc | ||
| Luka Dončić | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $20 | A | 0x7bf743…039a | ||
| Jake Paul | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $20 | A | 0xd0c4ea…7a1f | ||
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 2026-12-31 | 0.1% | — | $20 | A | 0x2794a0…bfb2 | ||
| Kylian Mbappé | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $20 | A | 0xa3e82f…b1a4 | ||
| Christian Pulisic | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $20 | A | 0x88893f…68fc | ||
| Jude Bellingham | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $20 | A | 0x23f8c8…7dda | ||
| Vladimir Putin | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $20 | A | 0xd87114…5335 | ||
| Billie Eilish | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $20 | A | 0x1fa752…ff74 | ||
| LeBron James | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $20 | A | 0x518e15…fbf7 | ||
| Travis Kelce | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $10 | A | 0x42dfed…165d | ||
| Caitlin Clark | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $10 | A | 0x9092f3…548f | ||
| Jacob Elordi | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $20 | A | 0x4b6064…156e | ||
| Shohei Ohtani | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $20 | A | 0x318778…78df | ||
| Josh Allen | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $20 | A | 0x4c5b0c…9341 | ||
| Angel Reese | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $10 | A | 0x323dd4…bf8a | ||
| Chappell Roan | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $10 | A | 0xecf078…ebc4 | ||
| Scarlett Johansson | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $10 | A | 0xbc481a…5b00 | ||
| Jalen Brunson | 2026-12-31 | — | — | $10 | A | 0xa19f9b…0e1e | ||
| Person 1 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x2579c5…1765 | ||
| Person 2 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb013c7…8861 | ||
| Person 3 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x3f4f3c…d41b | ||
| Person 4 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf22bf5…5d0b | ||
| Person 5 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x6e9cc4…0eac | ||
| Person 6 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb1021d…0dd6 | ||
| Person 7 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0fb8f1…4332 | ||
| Person 8 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd85ed7…aaaa | ||
| Person 9 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa94b94…c348 | ||
| Person 10 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9702ad…cbe1 | ||
| Person 11 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe8bd35…e9d8 | ||
| Person 12 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb6bc6e…a5ab | ||
| Person 13 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x467bb5…f655 | ||
| Person 14 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x1cb2ea…096c | ||
| Person 15 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x2fdc25…9b20 | ||
| Person 16 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x5df5bb…6db6 | ||
| Person 17 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xfdf325…9bed | ||
| Person 18 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa5cd5b…8e20 | ||
| Person 19 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9124a7…452f | ||
| Person 20 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x38a0b0…f764 | ||
| Person 21 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x3df447…4f1c | ||
| Person 22 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb0e045…8b70 | ||
| Person 23 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9cc618…5d0f | ||
| Person 24 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe6db6e…b48c | ||
| Person 25 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x05b983…05f3 | ||
| Person 26 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa6b94b…86e3 | ||
| Person 27 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x62250f…b401 | ||
| Person 28 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x663276…a8b3 | ||
| Person 29 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x98a378…bad4 | ||
| Person 30 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4f88e0…7a59 | ||
| Person 31 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8e753f…e705 | ||
| Person 32 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8b8122…963d | ||
| Person 33 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x6c020d…322b | ||
| Person 34 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x246df3…152f | ||
| Person 35 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xaa2801…ac84 | ||
| Person 36 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x60e9ee…c672 | ||
| Person 37 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb719ea…2b22 | ||
| Person 38 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa035fe…58a3 | ||
| Person 39 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x3a7b71…eea5 | ||
| Person 40 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbc92d3…1c1f | ||
| Person 41 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x230fbe…465f | ||
| Person 42 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x46a4cc…ab09 | ||
| Person 43 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x1d8305…3c08 | ||
| Person 44 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc107a2…f4a7 | ||
| Person 45 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4cd6c3…b617 | ||
| Person 46 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xff74db…c76d | ||
| Person 47 | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xebe15d…1244 | ||
| Someone else | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbcc2d7…6da0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the individual ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search United States "People" list for 2026.
The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to United States. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through United States → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure.
This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
platform source field
polymarket.description → trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ sources (3) · single authority
- trends.withgoogle.com source of record venue-listed
- trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ from rules text · editorial
- Google Trends Year in Search hub from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/1-searched-person-on-google-in-the-us-2026-20260730192940/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/1-searched-person-on-google-in-the-us-2026-20260730192940 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("1-searched-person-on-google-in-the-us-2026-20260730192940") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-XZQ8QRWB33",
"slug": "1-searched-person-on-google-in-the-us-2026-20260730192940",
"question": "Will Google's most-searched person in the US be determined by the end of 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"google-searches",
"us-internet-culture",
"pop-culture",
"tech",
"celebrity-ranking"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 103,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 40140,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "trends.withgoogle.com",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "trends.withgoogle.com",
"url": "trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Google Trends Year in Search hub",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}