Will the AI Lab end by the end of September? [ resolves 2026-09-30 (57D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 32 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | 38.0% | $408 | $875 | C | 0xb18873…01c7 | |||
| Alibaba | 2026-09-30 | 26.0% | $792 | $955 | C | 0x79b038…c24f | ||
| OpenAI | 2026-09-30 | 17.0% | $2.3K | $5.3K | C | 0xadf487…a704 | ||
| Meta | 2026-09-30 | 14.0% | $294 | $647 | C | 0x5356a8…90ec | ||
| Anthropic | 2026-09-30 | 7.0% | $167 | $405 | C | 0xa81507…126c | ||
| Moonshot | 2026-09-30 | 2.0% | $344 | $473 | C | 0xc070d1…b98d | ||
| StepFun | 2026-09-30 | 1.0% | $182 | $392 | C | 0x03e6aa…b2c2 | ||
| MiniMax | 2026-09-30 | 0.4% | $214 | $347 | C | 0xf0dd1f…6dd7 | ||
| Z.ai | 2026-09-30 | 0.3% | $174 | $287 | C | 0x319a82…1819 | ||
| Baidu | 2026-09-30 | 0.2% | $214 | $335 | C | 0x390594…1a4d | ||
| Xiaomi | 2026-09-30 | 0.2% | $214 | $341 | C | 0xbb4fea…1d0c | ||
| DeepSeek | 2026-09-30 | 0.2% | $246 | $379 | C | 0xbddbf2…edd9 | ||
| Meituan | 2026-09-30 | 0.2% | $214 | $431 | C | 0x896d12…a62f | ||
| Tencent | 2026-09-30 | 0.2% | $214 | $395 | C | 0xc0330a…bac4 | ||
| Microsoft | 2026-09-30 | 0.2% | $214 | $345 | C | 0x9b46ca…de22 | ||
| SpaceXAI | 2026-09-30 | 0.1% | $214 | $333 | C | 0xefe879…59c5 | ||
| ByteDance | 2026-09-30 | 0.1% | $214 | $335 | C | 0x6e0a10…deb8 | ||
| Thinky | 2026-09-30 | 0.1% | $214 | $347 | C | 0x604dc6…a431 | ||
| Mistral | 2026-09-30 | 0.1% | $214 | $327 | C | 0x7b0400…53a4 | ||
| Amazon | 2026-09-30 | 0.1% | $214 | $347 | C | 0xfc0e99…0852 | ||
| Nvidia | 2026-09-30 | 0.1% | $214 | $327 | C | 0x824974…12e2 | ||
| Company A | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x48560f…89cc | ||
| Company B | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1cad10…f05c | ||
| Company C | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x38dfa4…e4b9 | ||
| Company D | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xdb9215…4357 | ||
| Company E | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd5e03b…e885 | ||
| Company F | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4f0ae3…8bd8 | ||
| Company G | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xadbcca…d1f9 | ||
| Company H | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe2bc12…aed5 | ||
| Company I | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf63196…04db | ||
| Company K | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc80a25…640e | ||
| Any other AI lab/company | 2026-09-30 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4a71c0…cefc |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs sources (3) · single authority
- https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs venue-listed
- arena.ai source of record venue-listed
- arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/2-ai-lab-end-of-september-style-control-on-20260722222005322/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/2-ai-lab-end-of-september-style-control-on-20260722222005322 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("2-ai-lab-end-of-september-style-control-on-20260722222005322") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-KM80PHQKY8",
"slug": "2-ai-lab-end-of-september-style-control-on-20260722222005322",
"question": "Will the AI Lab end by the end of September?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai",
"tech",
"ai-lab-ranking",
"anthropic",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 32,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 13878,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 59,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
"resolution_source_url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "arena.ai",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
"url": null,
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "arena.ai",
"url": "https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "arena.ai Text Arena (Overall)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}