Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Bangsamoro Parliament election? [ resolves 2026-09-14 (53D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 51 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will United Bangsamoro Justice Party (UBJP) win the most seats in the 2026… | 2026-09-14 | 76.0% | $181 | $21K | B | 0x9e6331…d65a | ||
| Will Bangsamoro Federalist Party (BFP) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM… | 2026-09-14 | 20.0% | $131 | $3.4K | B | 0x003fcd…e082 | ||
| Will Datu Sa Kabanalan (Matampay) sa Magindanaw Royal Descendants Association… | 2026-09-14 | 5.0% | $16 | $245 | B | 0xe77e2f…b15d | ||
| Will BARMM Grand Coalition (BGC) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM… | 2026-09-14 | 4.3% | $16 | $328 | B | 0xb23534…63ba | ||
| Will Royal Sultanate of Eastern Unayan (RSEU) win the most seats in the 2026… | 2026-09-14 | 2.0% | $16 | $240 | B | 0xb9a71d…e554 | ||
| Will Mahardika Party (MAHARDIKA) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM… | 2026-09-14 | 1.0% | $16 | $256 | B | 0xbc028f…c9cb | ||
| Will The Royal House of the Sultanate of Marawi (ROHOSUMA) win the most seats… | 2026-09-14 | 1.0% | $16 | $266 | B | 0xdbfcee…ee74 | ||
| Will The Royal House of the Sultanate of Pagayawan (ROHOSUPA) win the most… | 2026-09-14 | 1.0% | $16 | $239 | B | 0x0a6e25…2206 | ||
| Will Bangsamoro Party (BAPA) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary… | 2026-09-14 | 0.2% | $16 | $260 | B | 0xcd02eb…f353 | ||
| Will Bangsamoro Empowerment and Social Transformation Party (BEST PARTY) win… | 2026-09-14 | 0.2% | $16 | $201 | B | 0xb415f8…7e80 | ||
| Will Partido Bangon Bangsamoro (PBB) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM… | 2026-09-14 | 0.2% | $16 | $193 | B | 0xfb3fa4…81de | ||
| Will Progresibong Bangsamoro Party (PRO BANGSAMORO PARTY) win the most seats in… | 2026-09-14 | 0.2% | $16 | $185 | B | 0xbcb8fe…5a77 | ||
| Will Bangsamoro Peoples’ Democratic Party (RAAYAT DEMOCRATIC PARTY) win the… | 2026-09-14 | 0.2% | $16 | $211 | B | 0xce4d3a…fad3 | ||
| Will Royal Sultanate of Langkong (RSL) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM… | 2026-09-14 | 0.2% | $16 | $201 | B | 0x4370e6…ef5d | ||
| Will Iranun Sultanate’s League of the Philippines, Inc. (ISLPI) win the most… | 2026-09-14 | 0.2% | $16 | $211 | B | 0xbcee2e…5d2f | ||
| Will the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Election not take place by September 14, 2026 | 2026-09-14 | 0.2% | $16 | $205 | B | 0x9fccb6…36f0 | ||
| Will Alliance of Bangsamoro Tri-People’s Party (ABOT) win the most seats in the… | 2026-09-14 | 0.1% | $26 | $194 | B | 0x6ddada…91a8 | ||
| Will Indigenous, Settlers, Sama and Minorities Alliance Party (ISAMA) win the… | 2026-09-14 | 0.1% | $26 | $194 | B | 0xdb8f81…0b6c | ||
| Will Moro Ako Party (MORO AKO) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM… | 2026-09-14 | 0.1% | $26 | $194 | B | 0x9706be…9b44 | ||
| Will People’s Consultative (Mushawara) Party (MUSHAWARA) win the most seats in… | 2026-09-14 | 0.1% | $26 | $214 | B | 0x7da0c1…a7ab | ||
| Will Christians Settler for Peace (C4P) win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM… | 2026-09-14 | 0.1% | $26 | $211 | B | 0x4c880f…6b16 | ||
| Will Tawi-Tawi Provincial Women’s Council Inc. (TPWC) win the most seats in the… | 2026-09-14 | 0.1% | $16 | $238 | B | 0x969c59…285d | ||
| Will League of Bangsamoro Islamic Advocate Associate (LBIAA) win the most seats… | 2026-09-14 | 0.1% | $26 | $211 | B | 0xc71df0…098b | ||
| Will Dungon Traditional Leaders Organization (DTLO) win the most seats in the… | 2026-09-14 | 0.1% | $26 | $194 | B | 0x05bedc…116a | ||
| Will another party win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xbf5e17…db7e | ||
| Will Party A win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1f7577…bd69 | ||
| Will Party B win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe732f0…de60 | ||
| Will Party C win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd6aaa1…e31a | ||
| Will Party D win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9eb31d…177c | ||
| Will Party E win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe558ba…dbfd | ||
| Will Party F win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0bbd34…ce50 | ||
| Will Party G win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x84307f…5f98 | ||
| Will Party H win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc22f08…e146 | ||
| Will Party I win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x418dbd…52f3 | ||
| Will Party J win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x4ccaf3…ef13 | ||
| Will Party K win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6f92b6…21ea | ||
| Will Party L win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xbcca13…cd7a | ||
| Will Party M win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xbace96…4e33 | ||
| Will Party N win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x79adca…9550 | ||
| Will Party O win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6c8464…1998 | ||
| Will Party P win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xbe73ec…8a88 | ||
| Will Party Q win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe589a7…4b0c | ||
| Will Party R win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5c84ee…ce8e | ||
| Will Party S win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x620167…e54a | ||
| Will Party T win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc9e043…279c | ||
| Will Party U win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x42909d…651b | ||
| Will Party V win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x16a39c…074a | ||
| Will Party W win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x11d4e7…449c | ||
| Will Party X win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6d2e7c…f895 | ||
| Will Party Y win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9d2451…4a7d | ||
| Will Party Z win the most seats in the 2026 BARMM Parliamentary Elections | 2026-09-14 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x8a484d…f14f |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect the Bangsamoro Parliament are scheduled to take place on September 14, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the 2026 The Bangsamoro Autonomous Region of Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) Parliamentary Elections.
If the specified election is officially canceled, rescheduled to a date after September 14, 2026, or voting does not take place by that date, 11:59 PM Philippine Standard Time, this market will resolve to "Election Postponed/Canceled." If voting takes place by September 14, 2026, but the results are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid party-list votes. If the tie persists, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose name as listed in this market appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the results as reported by the Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) (https://www.comelec.gov.ph/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · stated precedence rule
- comelec.gov.ph venue-listed
- Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC) source of record from rules text · editorial
- https://www.comelec.gov.ph/ from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/2026-bangsamoro-parliament-election-party-winner-20260715164930563/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/2026-bangsamoro-parliament-election-party-winner-20260715164930563 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("2026-bangsamoro-parliament-election-party-winner-20260715164930563") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-98LRC9DN22",
"slug": "2026-bangsamoro-parliament-election-party-winner-20260715164930563",
"question": "Which party will win the most seats in the 2026 Bangsamoro Parliament election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"philippines",
"party-performance",
"2026",
"barmm"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 51,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 29814,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.comelec.gov.ph/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "comelec.gov.ph",
"url": "https://www.comelec.gov.ph/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Philippine Commission on Elections (COMELEC)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "https://www.comelec.gov.ph/",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}