Will the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election have a turnout of at least 50%? [ resolves 2026-06-03 (0D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will voter turnout be between 55% and 60% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral election | 2026-06-03 | 50.0% | $1.8K | $5.8K | C | 0x9dff38…96f1 | ||
| Will voter turnout be between 60% and 65% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral election | 2026-06-03 | 49.0% | $2.1K | $6.8K | C | 0xa0f1b9…1ed9 | ||
| ≤ 50% | 2026-06-03 | 0.6% | $4.3K | $10K | C | 0x2f0b28…b67e | ||
| ≥ 65% | 2026-06-03 | 6.3% | $1.1K | $5.9K | C | 0xc24400…cf74 | ||
| Will voter turnout be between 50% and 55% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral election | 2026-06-03 | 0.2% | $6.9K | $19K | C | 0xf74e9b…1050 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The 2026 Seoul mayoral election is scheduled to take place on June 3, 2026 to elect the next mayor of Seoul.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for the 2026 Seoul mayoral election, defined as the total number of votes cast (총투표자수) divided by the total number of registered voters (선거인수).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the South Korean government, specifically the National Election Commission (https://info.nec.go.kr/).
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/2026-seoul-mayoral-election-turnout/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/2026-seoul-mayoral-election-turnout.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("2026-seoul-mayoral-election-turnout") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-L72V8X8QF2",
"slug": "2026-seoul-mayoral-election-turnout",
"question": "Will the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election have a turnout of at least 50%?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"south-korea",
"voter-turnout",
"2026",
"municipal-elections"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 47899,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"none"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://info.nec.go.kr/",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}