Will the second largest company by market capitalization exist at the end of August? [ resolves 2026-08-31 (39D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 29 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | 2026-08-31 | 66.0% | $133 | $5.5K | C | 0x21008f…ccb4 | ||
| NVIDIA | 2026-08-31 | 30.0% | $30 | $5.6K | C | 0xed8e54…48bb | ||
| Alphabet | 2026-08-31 | 13.0% | $195 | $3.5K | C | 0x0acb6f…7a92 | ||
| Saudi Aramco | 2026-08-31 | 0.2% | — | $1.5K | C | 0x2e85fe…5943 | ||
| Microsoft | 2026-08-31 | 0.1% | — | $864 | C | 0x4049ca…c597 | ||
| Tesla | 2026-08-31 | 0.1% | — | $860 | C | 0x5f69da…b1c2 | ||
| Amazon | 2026-08-31 | 0.1% | — | $889 | C | 0x31266d…fbba | ||
| Broadcom | 2026-08-31 | 0.1% | — | $1.3K | C | 0x1072ae…bb01 | ||
| Company A | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc68b55…182a | ||
| Company B | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3e1015…914f | ||
| Company C | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6e6bdb…bf33 | ||
| Company D | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x95e2e6…e063 | ||
| Company E | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbaa337…da78 | ||
| Company F | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe4ce50…df47 | ||
| Company G | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1d8b09…fe13 | ||
| Company H | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xafd5fa…b92b | ||
| Company I | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x31a962…c353 | ||
| Company J | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x456e23…6173 | ||
| Company K | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf45260…4c20 | ||
| Company L | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x76978b…69f8 | ||
| Company M | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe36f1b…a372 | ||
| Company N | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0315b3…a0ce | ||
| Company O | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8fee71…a2c5 | ||
| Company P | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3be104…8293 | ||
| Company Q | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x80e770…5a83 | ||
| Company R | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0d4f50…695e | ||
| Company S | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0e1a27…2727 | ||
| Company T | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa96481…1862 | ||
| Any other company | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xea45ec…1fc1 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31, 2026, as of market close.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/2nd-largest-company-end-of-august-20260715202554129/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/2nd-largest-company-end-of-august-20260715202554129 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("2nd-largest-company-end-of-august-20260715202554129") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TNWDRX4S25",
"slug": "2nd-largest-company-end-of-august-20260715202554129",
"question": "Will the second largest company by market capitalization exist at the end of August?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"market-cap-ranking",
"tech",
"economy",
"finance",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 29,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19990,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 56,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}