Will the 2nd largest company by market capitalization be different at the end of July than at the start of the year? [ resolves 2026-07-31 (8D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 29 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apple | 2026-07-31 | 87.0% | $4.3K | $98K | C | 0x8b32c0…c7d5 | ||
| NVIDIA | 2026-07-31 | 9.0% | $443 | $141K | C | 0xf60b64…a675 | ||
| Alphabet | 2026-07-31 | 1.4% | $5.3K | $92K | C | 0x73db93…8a69 | ||
| Amazon | 2026-07-31 | 0.2% | — | $7.3K | C | 0x323763…62d1 | ||
| Microsoft | 2026-07-31 | 0.1% | — | $8.7K | C | 0xef393f…6a32 | ||
| Tesla | 2026-07-31 | 0.1% | — | $27K | C | 0x7f9968…6977 | ||
| Saudi Aramco | 2026-07-31 | 0.1% | — | $9.6K | C | 0x508b23…9291 | ||
| Broadcom | 2026-07-31 | 0.1% | — | $6.6K | C | 0x875ca6…dbd5 | ||
| Company A | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfed99b…a767 | ||
| Company B | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5f6b1b…4e6c | ||
| Company C | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xec3d24…f347 | ||
| Company D | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbd3225…3197 | ||
| Company E | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd772b6…041a | ||
| Company F | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8ea5a8…8241 | ||
| Company G | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x743ba2…a15b | ||
| Company H | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9e03e1…b5cd | ||
| Company I | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1d017e…f271 | ||
| Company J | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb2aa17…290d | ||
| Company K | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa8efe6…3ac2 | ||
| Company L | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9472e4…5316 | ||
| Company M | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8f4cc9…b789 | ||
| Company N | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa43ac3…6a69 | ||
| Company O | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x37e14d…603c | ||
| Company P | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2726ca…1fbd | ||
| Company Q | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x213be4…d5dd | ||
| Company R | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf2ce11…0637 | ||
| Company S | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbbdc5b…c06b | ||
| Company T | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x83e9a1…38bc | ||
| Any other company | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6dea74…c872 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31, 2026, as of market close.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/2nd-largest-company-end-of-july-20260624192727948/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/2nd-largest-company-end-of-july-20260624192727948 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("2nd-largest-company-end-of-july-20260624192727948") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-45KB8ZK0W8",
"slug": "2nd-largest-company-end-of-july-20260624192727948",
"question": "Will the 2nd largest company by market capitalization be different at the end of July than at the start of the year?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"market-cap-ranking",
"tech",
"economy",
"finance",
"large-cap-companies"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 29,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 389382,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 59,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}