Will the second largest private company by revenue be different at the end of June compared to the start of the year? [ resolved 2026-07-01 ]

polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›

distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot

polymarket 12 markets

market	resolves	P(YES)	vol (24h)	vol (cum)	RCG	venue id
Anthropic	2026-07-01	100.0%	$261	$3.2K	C	`0xfff5e5…2d1a`
Anduril	2026-07-01	0.0%	$32	$832	C	`0x51aa2f…729b`
Canva	2026-07-01	0.0%	$32	$1.1K	C	`0xe8a33a…8363`
Epic Games	2026-07-01	0.0%	$53	$2.9K	C	`0xea30fc…e71c`
Perplexity	2026-07-01	0.0%	$53	$1.2K	C	`0xaf0431…26c7`
Kraken	2026-07-01	0.0%	$30	$1.2K	C	`0x36a49b…08b0`
Lambda	2026-07-01	0.0%	—	$691	C	`0xccb186…8f35`
Databricks	2026-07-01	0.0%	$30	$1.7K	C	`0x0037bb…6e33`
Neuralink	2026-07-01	0.0%	$30	$1.2K	C	`0xc84e29…c10b`
SpaceX	2026-07-01	0.0%	$30	$2.3K	C	`0x4a8856…bdbe`
OpenAI	2026-07-01	0.0%	$89	$1.7K	C	`0xb168f6…7d59`
Stripe	2026-07-01	0.0%	$30	$847	C	`0xbf8653…17af`

resolution architecture

venue	proposer	source	citation	arbitration	class	analyst notes
polymarket	`Whitelisted Proposers`	not provided	link	`Optimistic Oracle (UMA)`	`Other`	—

verbatim rules

polymarket 12 markets · share this text

This market will resolve to the listed company with the second largest private market valuation on June 30, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on July 1, 2026, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on July 4, 2026. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve based on its final NPM valuation published between market creation and the IPO or direct listing date, as this market is based on private market valuations only. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. If two or more companies are tied for the second highest valuation, the markets will resolve in favor of the company that achieved that valuation first. If the valuations were achieved on the same day, the market will resolve in favor of the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data. The resolution sources for this market are: https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5e0e75a3-96d6-4893-8f23-9d9bac0ec1db/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-53787f17-a704-47a9-895a-cb54833bdb1f/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-625e5f47-7ff7-45c4-be95-0305665164bd/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-ab5413cb-1c83-497e-b03e-2ed7ca70117d/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-86eda4f2-01af-4275-9c70-0ff3c347c62b/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-782c0a32-4727-4097-a40b-9a2602f243e7/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-802a7f97-3625-4614-a13d-d999cf139330/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-5bc8aa2b-22b5-48cc-b54a-1310145b0a86/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-6edded11-6786-4392-9695-3cce6fda0de0/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates.

platform source field

polymarket.description → https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates

sources (18) · single authority

fe.secondmarket.com source of record venue-listed
fe.secondmarket.com source of record venue-listed
fe.secondmarket.com source of record venue-listed
fe.secondmarket.com source of record venue-listed
fe.secondmarket.com source of record venue-listed
fe.secondmarket.com source of record venue-listed
fe.secondmarket.com source of record venue-listed
fe.secondmarket.com source of record venue-listed
fe.secondmarket.com source of record venue-listed
fe.secondmarket.com source of record venue-listed
fe.secondmarket.com source of record venue-listed
fe.secondmarket.com source of record venue-listed
NPM Prices are published for trading days only from rules text · editorial
NPM has not published relevant data from rules text · editorial
If NPM ceases publishing relevant data from rules text · editorial
NPM valuation from rules text · editorial
NPM data published from rules text · editorial
previously published NPM data from rules text · editorial

resolution history

outcome	market	venue	resolved	final price
NO	Will Anduril have the second highest private market valuation on June 30?	polymarket	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
NO	Will Canva have the second highest private market valuation on June 30?	polymarket	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
NO	Will Epic Games have the second highest private market valuation on June 30?	polymarket	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
NO	Will Perplexity have the second highest private market valuation on June 30?	polymarket	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
YES	Will Anthropic have the second highest private market valuation on June 30?	polymarket	`2026-07-01`	`100%`
NO	Will Kraken have the second highest private market valuation on June 30?	polymarket	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
NO	Will Lambda have the second highest private market valuation on June 30?	polymarket	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
NO	Will Databricks have the second highest private market valuation on June 30?	polymarket	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
NO	Will Neuralink have the second highest private market valuation on June 30?	polymarket	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
NO	Will SpaceX have the second highest private market valuation on June 30?	polymarket	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
NO	Will OpenAI have the second highest private market valuation on June 30?	polymarket	`2026-07-01`	`0%`
NO	Will Stripe have the second highest private market valuation on June 30?	polymarket	`2026-07-01`	`0%`

Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (12 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.

recent wire items

monitoring status: active no active wire

No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.

CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.

programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload

One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.

HTML	browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD `@type: Dataset`)	`https://clearmarket.fyi/events/2nd-largest-private-company-end-of-june/`
JSON	REST API for developers	`https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/2nd-largest-private-company-end-of-june`
MCP	agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue)	`clearmarket.get_event("2nd-largest-private-company-end-of-june")`
AGENT	AI crawler discovery index	`/llms.txt`

 Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
  raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint
 {
  "event_id": "CM-EVT-KZBSQTRLK6",
  "slug": "2nd-largest-private-company-end-of-june",
  "question": "Will the second largest private company by revenue be different at the end of June compared to the start of the year?",
  "category": "technology",
  "tags": [
    "technology",
    "private-company-rankings",
    "revenue-based-metric",
    "q2-2026",
    "enterprise-value",
    "market-volatility"
  ],
  "venues_covered": [
    "polymarket"
  ],
  "market_count": 12,
  "cumulative_volume_usd": 18642,
  "resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
  "rcg_score": 50,
  "rcg_caps": [
    "commitment_committed_secondhand"
  ],
  "resolution_source": null,
  "resolution_source_url": "https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-c62b8140-fdeb-428d-a9a6-d04eb3b24b49/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates",
  "source_status": "platform_named",
  "source_of_record": "fe.secondmarket.com",
  "resolution_source_list": [
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      "provenance": "platform_api"
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    },
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      "url": null,
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  ],
  "arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
  "proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
  "field_provenance": {
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    },
    "tags": {
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      "ai_drafted": true
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    "resolution_clarity_grade": {
      "source": "derived",
      "method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
    },
    "venues_covered": {
      "source": "derived"
    }
  }
}

snapshot 2026-07-06T00:30:45.836226+00:00 schema v0.2.0-universe all events →