Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on December 31? [ resolved 2026-03-31 ]
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 37 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Page | 2026-03-31 | 32.0% | — | $21K | A | 0x5644a0…5c59 | ||
| Mark Zuckerberg | 2026-03-31 | 11.0% | — | $592 | A | 0xe98585…fe2c | ||
| Sergey Brin | 2026-03-31 | 3.2% | — | $7.5K | A | 0xc0fb51…feb6 | ||
| Larry Ellison | 2026-03-31 | 1.2% | — | $913 | A | 0x21c5c7…53a0 | ||
| Jensen Huang | 2026-03-31 | 1.0% | — | $1.1K | A | 0x4091ba…7f4b | ||
| Bernard Arnault | 2026-03-31 | 0.3% | — | $905 | A | 0x9b70d5…699b | ||
| Jeff Bezos | 2026-03-31 | 0.3% | — | $9.7K | A | 0x4553e6…6fd8 | ||
| Warren Buffett | 2026-03-31 | 0.3% | — | $1.9K | A | 0xe11684…0a84 | ||
| Steve Ballmer | 2026-03-31 | 0.3% | — | $1.2K | A | 0x840205…8698 | ||
| Elon Musk | 2026-03-31 | 0.1% | — | $896 | A | 0x42442f…15e6 | ||
| Another individual | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x29608d…f246 | ||
| Person A | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x445d25…4599 | ||
| Person B | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x97b148…f2eb | ||
| Person C | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe930fe…1ba7 | ||
| Person D | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xb40a92…3a5b | ||
| Person E | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x053eb4…47e3 | ||
| Person F | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xcde672…ebac | ||
| Person G | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xa7be51…0678 | ||
| Person H | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc9cb31…9f3f | ||
| Person I | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9c80a6…d38c | ||
| Person J | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xdc6165…38a2 | ||
| Person K | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9316fe…71b2 | ||
| Person L | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x105aac…1898 | ||
| Person M | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf1356a…b92e | ||
| Person N | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xbc094a…8689 | ||
| Person O | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xd551a7…57ff | ||
| Person P | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x706348…7128 | ||
| Person Q | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xeeec50…4343 | ||
| Person R | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf82604…55ee | ||
| Person S | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf6dee2…441d | ||
| Person T | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0202dd…19ef | ||
| Person U | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x7bb214…ef5b | ||
| Person V | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x2681bb…e86b | ||
| Person W | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc403a2…c368 | ||
| Person X | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x86e083…9e91 | ||
| Person Y | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x382e5d…f52c | ||
| Person Z | 2026-03-31 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x893133…6e69 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #2 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/ sources (4) · stated precedence rule
- bloomberg.com venue-listed
- forbes.com venue-listed
- Bloomberg Billionaires Index source of record from rules text · editorial
- Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/2nd-richest-person-on-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/2nd-richest-person-on-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("2nd-richest-person-on-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-B9YNB6V583",
"slug": "2nd-richest-person-on-december-31",
"question": "Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on December 31?",
"category": "companies",
"tags": [
"companies",
"wealth-rankings",
"net-worth",
"billionaires",
"business",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 37,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 45719,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 88,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bloomberg Billionaires Index",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "bloomberg.com",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "forbes.com",
"url": "https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg Billionaires Index",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}