Will the 3rd largest company by market capitalization be different at the end of August than it was at the start of the question period? [ resolves 2026-08-31 (39D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 29 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet | 2026-08-31 | 87.0% | $1.4K | $14K | C | 0x4fe25d…f8f2 | ||
| Apple | 2026-08-31 | 7.0% | $787 | $9.5K | C | 0x5e8bb6…56bc | ||
| NVIDIA | 2026-08-31 | 5.1% | $1.4K | $7.7K | C | 0x46529d…6c0c | ||
| Microsoft | 2026-08-31 | 0.2% | $601 | $3.6K | C | 0x24b027…74fe | ||
| Tesla | 2026-08-31 | 0.1% | — | $1.4K | C | 0x6faa73…3eae | ||
| Saudi Aramco | 2026-08-31 | 0.1% | — | $2.3K | C | 0xb45c71…3f41 | ||
| Amazon | 2026-08-31 | 0.1% | — | $1.5K | C | 0xf0e220…e4da | ||
| Broadcom | 2026-08-31 | — | — | $1.3K | C | 0x0f7382…8518 | ||
| Company A | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x680274…6893 | ||
| Company B | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xbadc56…013c | ||
| Company C | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8c17e4…e90f | ||
| Company D | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfbee3b…7fb7 | ||
| Company E | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x244810…2996 | ||
| Company F | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1769d3…6282 | ||
| Company G | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf5222b…f624 | ||
| Company H | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcb1d97…af9e | ||
| Company I | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xea4925…3342 | ||
| Company J | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x937046…c3a7 | ||
| Company K | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x969503…1622 | ||
| Company L | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf6e3ad…9edb | ||
| Company M | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd3dd85…babb | ||
| Company N | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1f8835…ba1d | ||
| Company O | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x185632…066c | ||
| Company P | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd3812f…9a49 | ||
| Company Q | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x84ba77…f9b3 | ||
| Company R | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9e132f…3f04 | ||
| Company S | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4f056e…dae8 | ||
| Company T | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6eaf3c…bce8 | ||
| Any other company | 2026-08-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe297f3…fa04 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31, 2026, as of market close.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/3rd-largest-company-end-of-august-20260715203029875/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/3rd-largest-company-end-of-august-20260715203029875 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("3rd-largest-company-end-of-august-20260715203029875") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LMRQMHMWS6",
"slug": "3rd-largest-company-end-of-august-20260715203029875",
"question": "Will the 3rd largest company by market capitalization be different at the end of August than it was at the start of the question period?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"tech",
"market-cap",
"company-rankings",
"finance",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 29,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 41762,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 53,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}