Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31? [ resolves 2026-07-31 (8D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 29 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alphabet | 2026-07-31 | 98.3% | $42K | $110K | C | 0xbea2ae…3f45 | ||
| Apple | 2026-07-31 | 1.5% | $35K | $76K | C | 0x60b03b…c5fa | ||
| NVIDIA | 2026-07-31 | 0.5% | $5.5K | $55K | C | 0xfe911b…ca10 | ||
| Microsoft | 2026-07-31 | 0.2% | $1.2K | $23K | C | 0xa83743…7d23 | ||
| Tesla | 2026-07-31 | 0.1% | — | $2.4K | C | 0x8020bc…952d | ||
| Saudi Aramco | 2026-07-31 | 0.1% | — | $2.3K | C | 0x5b70a4…5805 | ||
| Amazon | 2026-07-31 | 0.1% | $1.0K | $17K | C | 0xa25c2e…6568 | ||
| Broadcom | 2026-07-31 | 0.1% | — | $3.1K | C | 0xcc3a9c…9c90 | ||
| Company A | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe99f40…c51d | ||
| Company B | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x722993…abaa | ||
| Company C | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd1dc9c…41be | ||
| Company D | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x34e241…a3e8 | ||
| Company E | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9c45aa…4fde | ||
| Company F | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x629433…48a6 | ||
| Company G | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5c1816…8db2 | ||
| Company H | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc2bc29…05e1 | ||
| Company I | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xcdf528…0de7 | ||
| Company J | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x181b8d…7325 | ||
| Company K | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf3fe6c…d2cd | ||
| Company L | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0d2972…f787 | ||
| Company M | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x1c71cf…2f50 | ||
| Company N | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x86336d…1c6b | ||
| Company O | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x34051e…62a1 | ||
| Company P | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x109131…9a08 | ||
| Company Q | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9783bf…5b75 | ||
| Company R | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf148ea…2f37 | ||
| Company S | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x430385…4f35 | ||
| Company T | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x48046a…9e56 | ||
| Any other company | 2026-07-31 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5ffeaa…4d9f |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31, 2026, as of market close.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/3rd-largest-company-end-of-july-20260624193025470/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/3rd-largest-company-end-of-july-20260624193025470 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("3rd-largest-company-end-of-july-20260624193025470") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GPHJ2BVTW6",
"slug": "3rd-largest-company-end-of-july-20260624193025470",
"question": "Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"tech",
"market-cap",
"rankings",
"economy",
"finance"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 29,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 289030,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 53,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}