Who will be the 3rd richest person on December 31? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 37 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergey Brin | 2026-12-31 | 26.0% | — | $371 | B | 0x88cfce…b23f | ||
| Warren Buffett | 2026-12-31 | 12.5% | — | $1.0K | B | 0x93db85…1161 | ||
| Elon Musk | 2026-12-31 | 7.8% | — | $314 | B | 0xb188fc…3c28 | ||
| Jeff Bezos | 2026-12-31 | 7.0% | — | $327 | B | 0x6f87a9…feba | ||
| Larry Page | 2026-12-31 | 6.0% | — | $6.7K | B | 0xd10117…f238 | ||
| Mark Zuckerberg | 2026-12-31 | 3.8% | — | $715 | B | 0x3e4b89…a400 | ||
| Jensen Huang | 2026-12-31 | 1.9% | — | $760 | B | 0x7205ce…b840 | ||
| Larry Ellison | 2026-12-31 | 0.8% | — | $416 | B | 0xb44d40…050c | ||
| Steve Ballmer | 2026-12-31 | 0.8% | — | $13K | B | 0xd1d31e…a328 | ||
| Bernard Arnault | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | — | $341 | B | 0xcc1e46…59b1 | ||
| Another individual | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x43d4c2…b6a2 | ||
| Person A | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x09c457…ddaa | ||
| Person B | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1ac462…212d | ||
| Person C | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd63a38…bafe | ||
| Person D | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd2dd05…55de | ||
| Person E | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x331224…db0b | ||
| Person F | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x690ffa…dbe4 | ||
| Person G | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x0fa94e…2dd7 | ||
| Person H | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x463e97…17d0 | ||
| Person I | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xe7bbc0…d342 | ||
| Person J | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd5c4b8…256d | ||
| Person K | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x87f0e4…404a | ||
| Person L | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x848742…7328 | ||
| Person M | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa14c01…af38 | ||
| Person N | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xf48491…3808 | ||
| Person O | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x7727f7…132f | ||
| Person P | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x41314a…bc14 | ||
| Person Q | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x1bb51f…06f2 | ||
| Person R | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6a7c6c…e113 | ||
| Person S | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xbf657e…cf24 | ||
| Person T | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xbe6999…188d | ||
| Person U | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x35b259…6cad | ||
| Person V | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9f940a…2823 | ||
| Person W | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xc32b10…95f7 | ||
| Person X | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x22142c…fb9e | ||
| Person Y | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x72e186…4d86 | ||
| Person Z | 2026-12-31 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd14177…ead4 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the name ranked #3 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index on December 31, 2026, 5:30 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If the data for the specified date is not released by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If neither source provides the specified date's data by January 2, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the latest data point available on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/ sources (4) · stated precedence rule
- bloomberg.com venue-listed
- forbes.com venue-listed
- Bloomberg Billionaires Index source of record from rules text · editorial
- Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/3rd-richest-person-on-december-31/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/3rd-richest-person-on-december-31 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("3rd-richest-person-on-december-31") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-N4M4JCJNJ6",
"slug": "3rd-richest-person-on-december-31",
"question": "Who will be the 3rd richest person on December 31?",
"category": "companies",
"tags": [
"companies",
"wealth-ranking",
"billionaire-list",
"net-worth",
"end-of-year",
"business"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 37,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 24401,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 66,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Bloomberg Billionaires Index",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "bloomberg.com",
"url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "forbes.com",
"url": "https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "Bloomberg Billionaires Index",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}