Will the AfD win the most seats in at least one September state election? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (161D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 4 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 German state elections | 2026-12-31 | 0.2% | $220 | $1.5K | C | 0x500505…40a4 | ||
| 1 German state election | 2026-12-31 | 6.9% | $481 | $6.1K | C | 0x8bf6bc…522f | ||
| 2 German state elections | 2026-12-31 | 82.0% | $498 | $9.9K | C | 0xecaa47…1e44 | ||
| 3 German state elections | 2026-12-31 | 11.0% | $511 | $4.9K | C | 0x64922b…5fa2 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (also known as Saxony-Anhalt), the Landtag of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in September of 2026.
This market will resolve to the number of elections, among those three listed, in which Alternative für Deutschland, also referred to as AfD or Alternative for Germany, wins or ties for the greatest number of seats in these elections.
No other election in a German state parliamentary body will be considered, even if it is held in September of 2026.
A delayed election to any of the three referenced bodies will be considered so long as voting is completed by December 31, 2026 at 11:59PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the results of the elections, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies. No potential challenge or invalidation of an election that occurs after the publication of the official results will be relevant to this market.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1) · stated precedence rule
- official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/afd-wins-the-most-seats-in-how-many-september-state-elections-20260630185301104/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/afd-wins-the-most-seats-in-how-many-september-state-elections-20260630185301104 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("afd-wins-the-most-seats-in-how-many-september-state-elections-20260630185301104") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-H9W922JX97",
"slug": "afd-wins-the-most-seats-in-how-many-september-state-elections-20260630185301104",
"question": "Will the AfD win the most seats in at least one September state election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"germany",
"afd",
"2026",
"state-elections"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 22358,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official websites of the listed parliamentary bodies",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}