Will Ahmed al-Sharaa no longer be the leader of Syria by December 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (149D) ]
Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ahmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026 | 2026-12-31 | 3.0% | — | $66K | C | 0x568d87…fb27 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ahmed al-Sharaa ceases to be President of Syria for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Ahmed al-Sharaa's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ahmed al-Sharaa and the government of Syria; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (1)
official information from Ahmed al-Sharaa and the government of Syria from rules text
recent wire items
- Ahmed al-Sharaa staying as Syria leader stays heavily favored Polymarket 3%
- Polymarket puts only 3% on Ahmed al-Sharaa no longer leading Syria by December 31, 2026, the market strongly backs his continued tenure.
- U.S. sanctions relief and a direct Trump meeting reinforce al-Sharaa's diplomatic legitimacy, consistent with the market's near-certain pricing of his continued role.
- Trading volume in the Israel-Saudi normalization contract (CM-EVT-4KV364R788) surged 34,649% day-over-day, suggesting the Syria policy shift is drawing fresh attention to regional normalization bets.
- Resolves via UMA oracle; departure would require al-Sharaa leaving or being removed from Syria's interim presidency before year-end.
- Syria interim leader staying in power stays heavily favored Polymarket 3%
- The Polymarket prediction market puts only 3% probability on Ahmed al-Sharaa no longer leading Syria by December 31, 2026.
- Trump's meeting and sanctions relief announcement represent a strong US endorsement of the current interim leadership, which is broadly consistent with the market's near-certain hold pricing.
- A companion Kalshi contract on Trump embargoing a new country by August 2026 sits at 10%, suggesting the market sees the Syria sanctions lift as an isolated policy move rather than part of a broader embargo wave.
- Resolves via uma_oracle; settlement requires a credible public report that al-Sharaa has formally left the leadership role before year-end.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ahmed-al-sharaa-out-as-leader-of-syria-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ahmed-al-sharaa-out-as-leader-of-syria-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ahmed-al-sharaa-out-as-leader-of-syria-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-F551BM8LB9",
"slug": "ahmed-al-sharaa-out-as-leader-of-syria-before-2027",
"question": "Will Ahmed al-Sharaa no longer be the leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?",
"category": "geopolitics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"geopolitics",
"syria-leadership",
"middle-east",
"regime-change",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 66114,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 24,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"adversarial_ground_truth",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official information from Ahmed al-Sharaa and the government of Syria",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}