Will an AI model score ≥ 90% on the FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (178D) ]
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?
polymarket: [C] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 1 market
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≥ 90% | 2026-12-31 | 26.0% | $182 | $79K | C | 0x4632e9…341b |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (1) · single authority
- EpochAI source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/ai-model-scores-90-on-frontiermath-benchmark-before-2027/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/ai-model-scores-90-on-frontiermath-benchmark-before-2027 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("ai-model-scores-90-on-frontiermath-benchmark-before-2027") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-TJHL5Z0RK9",
"slug": "ai-model-scores-90-on-frontiermath-benchmark-before-2027",
"question": "Will an AI model score ≥ 90% on the FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai",
"machine-learning",
"benchmark-performance",
"mathematical-reasoning",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 1,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 78749,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 66,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_committed_secondhand"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "EpochAI",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "EpochAI",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}