Will the Alaska at-large primary produce winners by August 18, 2026? [ resolves 2026-08-18 (14D) ]
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Begich III | 2026-08-18 | 98.4% | — | $1.7K | A | 0xd88810…e682 | ||
| Bill Hill | 2026-08-18 | 97.0% | — | $3.7K | A | 0xcc296a…c8ab | ||
| Matt Schultz | 2026-08-18 | 62.0% | — | $3.4K | A | 0x995ad3…4053 | ||
| John Williams | 2026-08-18 | 56.0% | — | $3.7K | A | 0x675acd…669a | ||
| Matthew "Bronco" Williams | 2026-08-18 | 27.0% | — | $3.2K | A | 0x2b9286…714d | ||
| Gavin Solomon | 2026-08-18 | 0.2% | — | $4.0K | A | 0x95f03d…cf77 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
The non-partisan primary election for the Alaska At-Large Congressional District is scheduled to take place on August 18, 2026. The top four candidates in this election by number of votes won will advance to the general election for Representative from Alaska.
This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for Alaska's At-Large congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of the primary election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Alaska, specifically the State of Alaska Division of Elections.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
- State of Alaska Division of Elections source of record from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/alaska-at-large-primary-winners/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/alaska-at-large-primary-winners |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("alaska-at-large-primary-winners") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-D9VG7XDBF1",
"slug": "alaska-at-large-primary-winners",
"question": "Will the Alaska at-large primary produce winners by August 18, 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"2026",
"alaska",
"primary",
"us-congress"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 19603,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 85,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "State of Alaska Division of Elections",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "State of Alaska Division of Elections",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}