Will Mark Begich win the 2026 Alaska Governor election? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (91D) ]
polymarket: [A] multiple sources, tie-break·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 40 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins | 2026-11-03 | 79.0% | $69 | $15K | A | 0x43cedc…ced3 | ||
| Bernadette Wilson | 2026-11-03 | 26.0% | $416 | $161K | A | 0x9aba5b…0792 | ||
| Tom Begich | 2026-11-03 | 26.0% | $15 | $137K | A | 0xb120cb…3587 | ||
| Treg Taylor | 2026-11-03 | 23.6% | $86 | $26K | A | 0xbc9964…2663 | ||
| Bill Walker | 2026-11-03 | 4.9% | — | $5.2K | A | 0x1aaa09…f9b0 | ||
| David Bronson | 2026-11-03 | 3.6% | $40 | $15K | A | 0x8377be…f057 | ||
| Click Bishop | 2026-11-03 | 1.1% | $77 | $14K | A | 0xb2fddc…68db | ||
| Mary Peltola | 2026-11-03 | 1.0% | — | $327K | A | 0x74a5ea…91a5 | ||
| Nancy Dahlstrom | 2026-11-03 | 0.4% | $2 | $123K | A | 0x90c810…e0c7 | ||
| Shelley Hughes | 2026-11-03 | 0.3% | — | $12K | A | 0x129235…1f2a | ||
| Hank Kroll | 2026-11-03 | 0.3% | — | $8.7K | A | 0xb2d876…49e4 | ||
| Adam Crum | 2026-11-03 | 0.2% | — | $43K | A | 0x807371…7529 | ||
| Matt Heilala | 2026-11-03 | 0.2% | — | $35K | A | 0x9e7789…1dc7 | ||
| James Parkin | 2026-11-03 | 0.2% | — | $109K | A | 0x6ff8d9…b0b0 | ||
| Lisa Murkowski | 2026-11-03 | 0.2% | — | $21K | A | 0xe40169…ac1e | ||
| Matt Claman | 2026-11-03 | 0.2% | — | $16K | A | 0xef25ac…abf3 | ||
| Edna DeVries | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $11K | A | 0xe2edbf…2592 | ||
| Bruce Walden | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $8.8K | A | 0x0d87ce…9dae | ||
| Lesil McGuire | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $5.5K | A | 0x9ae712…8f3f | ||
| Gregg Brelsford | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $2.9K | A | 0x4fd145…8170 | ||
| Jessica Faircloth | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $3.3K | A | 0x374285…d901 | ||
| Destry J. Payne Sr. | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $2.8K | A | 0x13aa3a…e751 | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf5e3dc…b9e7 | ||
| Candidate K | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x604d27…d3f3 | ||
| Candidate L | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x9a6adb…5da9 | ||
| Candidate M | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xfdd7d8…b454 | ||
| Candidate N | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x916c1b…6a8f | ||
| Candidate O | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xe4754e…f849 | ||
| Candidate P | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x0ede91…a634 | ||
| Candidate Q | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4668ef…08f9 | ||
| Candidate R | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xae898a…6244 | ||
| Candidate S | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x07655d…4cb5 | ||
| Candidate T | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x927840…c456 | ||
| Candidate U | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x116a3d…81ce | ||
| Candidate V | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x4d75c7…3d41 | ||
| Candidate W | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x021356…ef14 | ||
| Candidate X | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xc063b0…2487 | ||
| Candidate Y | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xfe901e…bce3 | ||
| Candidate Z | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0x8307e8…aa3e | ||
| Another candidate | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | A | 0xf3f4c7…7798 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text
recent wire items
- Kreiss-Tomkins leads Alaska governor race as buyers back 82% odds 82% · $19K 24h
- Polymarket prices Kreiss-Tomkins at 82%, reflecting strong conviction that he is the clear front-runner in Alaska's 2026 race.
- Today's $19K in volume equals 25% of all-time, a notable single-day concentration for an Alaska state-level contract.
- Fresh participation at elevated odds suggests the market is confirming rather than challenging his front-runner status following a likely news event.
- Resolves on the outcome of the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election.
- Kreiss-Tomkins leads the Alaska governor race at 84% 84% · $20K 24h
- Polymarket prices Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins at 84% to win the 2026 Alaska governor election, a strong favorite read.
- 26% of all-time volume traded in 24h, the second-largest single-session share for this contract.
- Fresh volume backing an 84% price suggests new information, polling, endorsements, or a rival's withdrawal, is reinforcing the frontrunner framing.
- Resolves on 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election outcome.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/alaska-governor-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/alaska-governor-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("alaska-governor-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-552YG8W5J1",
"slug": "alaska-governor-election-winner",
"question": "Will Mark Begich win the 2026 Alaska Governor election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"2026",
"alaska",
"us-governors",
"state-elections"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 40,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1102246,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 82,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}