Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (153D) ]
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 40 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 29.0% | $57 | $123K | C | 0xb120cb…3587 | ||
| Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 25.0% | $620 | $156K | C | 0x9aba5b…0792 | ||
| Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 15.4% | $25 | $9.1K | C | 0x43cedc…ced3 | ||
| Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 5.8% | $10 | $21K | C | 0xbc9964…2663 | ||
| Will Click Bishop win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 4.9% | $10 | $10K | C | 0xb2fddc…68db | ||
| Will David Bronson win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 4.1% | $10 | $11K | C | 0x8377be…f057 | ||
| Will Bill Walker win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 2.4% | $504 | $504 | C | 0x1aaa09…f9b0 | ||
| Will Matt Claman win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 2.2% | $101 | $7.3K | C | 0xef25ac…abf3 | ||
| Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.8% | $484 | $120K | C | 0x90c810…e0c7 | ||
| Will James Parkin win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.4% | $10 | $105K | C | 0x6ff8d9…b0b0 | ||
| Will Adam Crum win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.3% | $18 | $41K | C | 0x807371…7529 | ||
| Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.3% | $69 | $325K | C | 0x74a5ea…91a5 | ||
| Will Hank Kroll win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.3% | $2.5K | $6.5K | C | 0xb2d876…49e4 | ||
| Will Matt Heilala win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.3% | $10 | $30K | C | 0x9e7789…1dc7 | ||
| Will Edna DeVries win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.2% | $98 | $9.3K | C | 0xe2edbf…2592 | ||
| Will Shelley Hughes win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.2% | $10 | $10K | C | 0x129235…1f2a | ||
| Will Lisa Murkowski win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.2% | $827 | $15K | C | 0xe40169…ac1e | ||
| Will Gregg Brelsford win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.2% | $469 | $469 | C | 0x4fd145…8170 | ||
| Will Lesil McGuire win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.2% | $469 | $469 | C | 0x9ae712…8f3f | ||
| Will Destry J. Payne Sr. win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $189 | $189 | C | 0x13aa3a…e751 | ||
| Will Bruce Walden win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $10 | $5.4K | C | 0x0d87ce…9dae | ||
| Will Jessica Faircloth win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | $189 | $189 | C | 0x374285…d901 | ||
| Will Candidate J win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf5e3dc…b9e7 | ||
| Will Candidate L win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9a6adb…5da9 | ||
| Will Candidate N win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x916c1b…6a8f | ||
| Will Candidate P win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x0ede91…a634 | ||
| Will Candidate R win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xae898a…6244 | ||
| Will Candidate T win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x927840…c456 | ||
| Will Candidate V win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4d75c7…3d41 | ||
| Will Candidate X win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xc063b0…2487 | ||
| Will Candidate Z win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x8307e8…aa3e | ||
| Will Candidate K win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x604d27…d3f3 | ||
| Will Candidate M win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfdd7d8…b454 | ||
| Will Candidate O win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xe4754e…f849 | ||
| Will Candidate Q win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x4668ef…08f9 | ||
| Will Candidate S win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x07655d…4cb5 | ||
| Will Candidate U win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x116a3d…81ce | ||
| Will Candidate W win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x021356…ef14 | ||
| Will Candidate Y win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfe901e…bce3 | ||
| Will another candidate win the 2026 Alaska governor election | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xf3f4c7…7798 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | Associated Press | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolution_source → "Associated Press" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/alaska-governor-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/alaska-governor-election-winner.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("alaska-governor-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-552YG8W5J1",
"slug": "alaska-governor-election-winner",
"question": "Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska governor election?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"alaska",
"us-elections-2026",
"governor-races",
"state-elections"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 40,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 1007741,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 50,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": "Associated Press",
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}