Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (153D) ]
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?
polymarket: [B] multiple sources, tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 29 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 60.0% | $253 | $165K | B | 0x19d2ff…8fd9 | ||
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 40.0% | $73 | $92K | B | 0x741bb4…78de | ||
| Will Dustin Darden win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $22K | B | 0xec751b…6449 | ||
| Will Ann Diener win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $34K | B | 0xa26ab3…c96a | ||
| Will Richard Grayson win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $22K | B | 0x998ee2…06d8 | ||
| Will Candidate A win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x10d6e0…f12f | ||
| Will Candidate C win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xfd0d3c…148c | ||
| Will Candidate E win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xd0e30a…2ffe | ||
| Will Candidate G win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x2db3f6…19f6 | ||
| Will Candidate I win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x921786…1dc3 | ||
| Will Candidate K win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x668fa4…5e2d | ||
| Will Candidate L win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5cbbb6…8b2a | ||
| Will Candidate N win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x89da7f…496d | ||
| Will Candidate P win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa2ec16…542d | ||
| Will Candidate R win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xa2cd8d…a6b0 | ||
| Will Candidate T win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x3d9b9e…3a2c | ||
| Will Candidate V win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x6d3939…a3c2 | ||
| Will a candidate not listed above win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x760537…01ef | ||
| Will Candidate M win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x9970b1…1b13 | ||
| Will Candidate O win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x75a0f0…9330 | ||
| Will Candidate Q win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x96940a…acaa | ||
| Will Candidate S win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x014c81…7ff1 | ||
| Will Candidate U win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x5d731d…bff2 | ||
| Will Candidate W win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0xb70372…806b | ||
| Will Candidate B win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x809ee6…db97 | ||
| Will Candidate D win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x073019…868f | ||
| Will Candidate F win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x76f178…f993 | ||
| Will Candidate H win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x2b9e56…909a | ||
| Will Candidate J win the Alaska Senate race in 2026 | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x697279…9833 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | Associated Press | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolution_source → "Associated Press" recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/alaska-senate-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/alaska-senate-election-winner.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("alaska-senate-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FSS872PZ65",
"slug": "alaska-senate-election-winner",
"question": "Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"elections",
"politics",
"us-senate",
"alaska",
"2026",
"electoral-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 29,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 334835,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 58,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "Associated Press",
"resolution_source_url": null,
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}