Alaska Senate Election Winner [ resolves 2026-11-03 (91D) ]
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by outcome · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 29 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mary Peltola | 2026-11-03 | 74.0% | $212 | $184K | C | 0x19d2ff…8fd9 | ||
| Dan Sullivan | 2026-11-03 | 25.0% | $35 | $110K | C | 0x741bb4…78de | ||
| Ann Diener | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $36K | C | 0xa26ab3…c96a | ||
| Dustin Darden | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $23K | C | 0xec751b…6449 | ||
| Richard Grayson | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $23K | C | 0x998ee2…06d8 | ||
| Candidate A | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x10d6e0…f12f | ||
| Candidate B | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x809ee6…db97 | ||
| Candidate C | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xfd0d3c…148c | ||
| Candidate D | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x073019…868f | ||
| Candidate E | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xd0e30a…2ffe | ||
| Candidate F | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x76f178…f993 | ||
| Candidate G | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2db3f6…19f6 | ||
| Candidate H | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x2b9e56…909a | ||
| Candidate I | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x921786…1dc3 | ||
| Candidate J | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x697279…9833 | ||
| Candidate K | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x668fa4…5e2d | ||
| Candidate L | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5cbbb6…8b2a | ||
| Candidate M | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x9970b1…1b13 | ||
| Candidate N | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x89da7f…496d | ||
| Candidate O | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x75a0f0…9330 | ||
| Candidate P | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa2ec16…542d | ||
| Candidate Q | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x96940a…acaa | ||
| Candidate R | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xa2cd8d…a6b0 | ||
| Candidate S | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x014c81…7ff1 | ||
| Candidate T | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x3d9b9e…3a2c | ||
| Candidate U | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x5d731d…bff2 | ||
| Candidate V | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x6d3939…a3c2 | ||
| Candidate W | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0xb70372…806b | ||
| A candidate not listed above | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x760537…01ef |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (3) · quorum — multiple sources must agree
Associated Press from rules text Fox News from rules text NBC from rules text
recent wire items
- Dan Sullivan trades at 27% as Alaska race draws more money 27% · $86K 24h
- 27% odds make Sullivan a heavy underdog in his Alaska Senate re-election bid.
- Polymarket records $86K in 24h, 30% of all-time volume, in a clear single-session burst.
- Closely mirrors Kalshi's GOP Alaska contract (Spike 1), confirming cross-venue conviction on the same outcome.
- Resolves on the 2026 Alaska Senate election result.
- Dan Sullivan odds sit at 27% as Polymarket volume picks up 27% · $87K 24h
- Polymarket prices Dan Sullivan's re-election at 27%, closely mirroring the Kalshi Republican contract.
- $86.7K traded in 24h, equal to 31% of all-time volume on this contract.
- Cross-venue alignment near 27-29% signals consistent bearish read on Sullivan, not noise on one platform.
- Resolves on the 2026 Alaska Senate general election result.
- Peltola holds a strong lead in the Alaska Senate race 79% · $162K 24h
- At 79%, Polymarket treats Peltola as a near-certain winner of the 2026 Alaska Senate seat.
- 24h volume of $162K equals 30% of all-time handle, a major single-session commitment.
- Fresh capital at elevated odds suggests the market is absorbing new polling or campaign news backing her position.
- Contract resolves on the November 2026 Alaska Senate election result.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/alaska-senate-election-winner/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/alaska-senate-election-winner |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("alaska-senate-election-winner") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-FSS872PZ65",
"slug": "alaska-senate-election-winner",
"question": "Alaska Senate Election Winner",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"politics",
"elections",
"us-senate",
"alaska",
"2026",
"electoral-outcomes"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 29,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 376585,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 60,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "Associated Press",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "Fox News",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "NBC",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}