Will Allstate's Q2 property-liability combined ratio be below 100 by the end of Q2? [ resolves 2026-08-05 (1D) ]
polymarket: [C] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 88% | 2026-08-05 | 47.0% | $871 | $8.9K | C | 0x08b9f0…b312 | ||
| 88%-90% | 2026-08-05 | 26.0% | $30 | $615 | C | 0xedee86…1abd | ||
| 90%-92% | 2026-08-05 | 17.0% | $30 | $819 | C | 0xfa6ef9…8680 | ||
| ≥ 94% | 2026-08-05 | 6.3% | $30 | $315 | C | 0xe6ba83…4f9e | ||
| 92%-94% | 2026-08-05 | 4.1% | $10 | $489 | C | 0xc90b22…bb8c |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to Allstate's property-liability combined ratio for the upcoming second fiscal quarter, as reported in its official company earnings materials.
The specified metric will be considered as reported in the company's official earnings materials. Subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the specified company's official earnings materials for the specified quarter are released, and the specified metric is not included, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the specified company does not release quarterly earnings materials for the specified quarter by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified metric is reported as a range rather than a specific number, the midpoint of the range will be used for resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market is the specified company's official earnings materials, including press releases, investor presentations, and regulatory filings. If the specified metric is not reported in these materials, recordings or transcripts of the company's earnings webcast may also be used.
Note: This market will resolve based on the most numerically precise version of the specified metric reported in the company's official earnings materials. Only the specified metric will be considered; alternate versions that differ in definition or scope from the specified metric will not be considered.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above sources (5)
- official earnings materials from rules text · editorial
- company's official earnings materials from rules text · editorial
- press releases from rules text · editorial
- investor presentations from rules text · editorial
- regulatory filings from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/allstate-all-q2-property-liability-combined-ratio-20260725212400685/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/allstate-all-q2-property-liability-combined-ratio-20260725212400685 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("allstate-all-q2-property-liability-combined-ratio-20260725212400685") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-LC3ZM0DLY0",
"slug": "allstate-all-q2-property-liability-combined-ratio-20260725212400685",
"question": "Will Allstate's Q2 property-liability combined ratio be below 100 by the end of Q2?",
"category": "financials",
"tags": [
"financials",
"finance",
"insurance",
"combined-ratio",
"q2-2026",
"earnings-metric"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 11171,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": null,
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "official earnings materials",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "company's official earnings materials",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "press releases",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "investor presentations",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "regulatory filings",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}