Will there be another critical Cloudflare incident by 2026-07-03? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-09 ]
Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026?
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cloudflare experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as critical when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
An incident resolved outside this market’s timeframe will only qualify if ongoing at this market’s resolution time, in which case the market will remain open until that incident is marked as “Resolved,” and resolution will be based on the first impact classification thereafter, regardless of subsequent revisions or corrections.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to Critical will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Cloudflare (for example, on cloudflarestatus.com or cloudflarestatus.com/history); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ none returned sources (2) · stated precedence rule
- cloudflarestatus.com source of record venue-listed
- cloudflarestatus.com/history from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/another-critical-cloudflare-incident-by-123/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/another-critical-cloudflare-incident-by-123 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("another-critical-cloudflare-incident-by-123") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-08-04. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-M9R29P6ZH4",
"slug": "another-critical-cloudflare-incident-by-123",
"question": "Will there be another critical Cloudflare incident by 2026-07-03?",
"category": "companies",
"tags": [
"companies",
"cloudflare",
"tech-infrastructure",
"incident-prediction",
"business-continuity",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 4,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 34851,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 62,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "cloudflarestatus.com",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "cloudflarestatus.com",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "cloudflarestatus.com",
"url": "cloudflarestatus.com",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "cloudflarestatus.com/history",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}