Will the US government shut down and the Republican Party win the House in the 2026 elections? [ resolves 2026-02 – 2026-11 ]
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic… | 2026-02-01 | 0.1% | — | $114K | C | 0xa28f25…8967 | ||
| Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican… | 2026-02-01 | 0.1% | — | $95K | C | 0x43eab8…4f67 | ||
| Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the… | 2026-11-03 | 80.9% | $21 | $51K | C | 0x9317b9…8c3c | ||
| Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the… | 2026-11-03 | 17.0% | $6 | $65K | C | 0x02df71…2220 | ||
| Will something else occur | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | C | 0x496ca0…cdb0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/ sources (4) · stated precedence rule
- polymarket.com venue-listed
- polymarket.com venue-listed
- opm.gov venue-listed
- U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) source of record from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| closed | Will something else occur? | polymarket | 2026-11-03 | — |
| closed | Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican Party win the House in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-02-01 | — |
| closed | Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? | polymarket | 2026-02-01 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (3 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/another-us-government-shutdown-house-winner-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/another-us-government-shutdown-house-winner-2026 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("another-us-government-shutdown-house-winner-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DPRQQSZLC3",
"slug": "another-us-government-shutdown-house-winner-2026",
"question": "Will the US government shut down and the Republican Party win the House in the 2026 elections?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"congress",
"politics",
"elections",
"us-government-shutdown",
"house-2026",
"compound-event"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 325705,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 68,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM)",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "polymarket.com",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "polymarket.com",
"url": "https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "opm.gov",
"url": "https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM)",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}