Will there be another US government shutdown and a House Republican winner in 2026? [ resolves 2026-11-03 (153D) ]
Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?
polymarket: [B] single source·reporting consensus methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date
polymarket 5 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the… | 2026-11-03 | 81.9% | $18 | $51K | B | 0x9317b9…8c3c | ||
| Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31 and will the… | 2026-11-03 | 17.0% | — | $65K | B | 0x02df71…2220 | ||
| Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Democratic… | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $114K | B | 0xa28f25…8967 | ||
| Will there be no US government shutdown by January 31 and will the Republican… | 2026-11-03 | 0.1% | — | $95K | B | 0x43eab8…4f67 | ||
| Will something else occur | 2026-11-03 | 0.0% | — | — | B | 0x496ca0…cdb0 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | opm.gov | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether there will be another US government shutdown by January 31 (https://polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-another-us-government-shutdown-by-january-31?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31?
This market will resolve according to whether the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) announces another federal government shutdown due to a lapse in appropriations by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Partial shutdowns count as shutdowns; announcements of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather do not qualify as a shutdown.
The resolution source for this market will be OPM’s Operating Status page (https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/).
2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.
House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.
If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.
Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/ recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/another-us-government-shutdown-house-winner-2026/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/another-us-government-shutdown-house-winner-2026.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("another-us-government-shutdown-house-winner-2026") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DPRQQSZLC3",
"slug": "another-us-government-shutdown-house-winner-2026",
"question": "Will there be another US government shutdown and a House Republican winner in 2026?",
"category": "politics",
"tags": [
"congress",
"politics",
"elections",
"us-government-shutdown",
"house-2026",
"compound-event"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 325650,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 62,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": "opm.gov",
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/snow-dismissal-procedures/current-status/",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}