Will Anthropic Claude achieve a score on Humanity's Last Exam by June 30, 2026? [ resolved 2026-06-30 ]
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
polymarket: [A] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
polymarket 5 markets
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | not provided | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam sources (2) · single authority
- scale.com source of record venue-listed
- https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam from rules text · editorial
resolution history
| outcome | market | venue | resolved | final price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| NO | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | polymarket | 2026-06-30 | 0% |
| closed | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | polymarket | 2026-04-22 | — |
| closed | Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | polymarket | 2026-02-17 | — |
Derived from the platform price + resolution-date snapshot (5 resolved markets). PENDING upgrades to a final outcome on the next refresh.
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/anthropic-claude-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-by-june-30/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/anthropic-claude-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-by-june-30 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("anthropic-claude-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-by-june-30") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-06. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-63ZPJ9NF31",
"slug": "anthropic-claude-score-on-humanitys-last-exam-by-june-30",
"question": "Will Anthropic Claude achieve a score on Humanity's Last Exam by June 30, 2026?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"claude-performance",
"ai-benchmarks",
"anthropic",
"capability-assessment",
"humanity-last-exam"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 5,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 342544,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "A",
"rcg_score": 91,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam",
"source_status": "platform_named",
"source_of_record": "scale.com",
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "scale.com",
"url": "https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}