Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by 2026-07-20? [ resolves 2026-07 – 2026-07 ]
Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by July 19, 2026?
polymarket: [C] multiple sources, no tie-break·reporting consensus methodology ›
markets · by resolution date · marks: daily snapshot
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | link | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
On July 12, 2026, Anthropic announced that it was extending access to Claude Fable 5 on all paid plans through July 19, 2026, ahead of the previously scheduled cutoff after which the model would move to usage-credit-only billing (https://x.com/claudeai/status/2076351399999557669).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic removes access to "Claude Fable 5" from qualifying paid plans by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A qualifying removal requires Fable 5 to no longer be included within standard usage limits, without requiring usage credits for baseline access, on all of the Pro, Max, or Team plans. Moving Fable 5 to usage-credit-only access on all paid plans will qualify. Removing included access only from some of these plans will not qualify. Access through the Enterprise plan will not be considered.
Announcements alone will not qualify. Qualifying paid-plan access must actually be removed by the listed date.
The percentage cap itself is irrelevant to qualification (higher, lower, unchanged, or removed all count), so long as Fable 5 remains available within the included allowance. Reducing the percentage cap, without fully removing included access, will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
platform source field
polymarket.description → https://x.com/claudeai/status/2076351399999557669 sources (3)
- x.com venue-listed
- official information from Anthropic from rules text · editorial
- a consensus of credible reporting from rules text · editorial
recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
One canonical record at every surface — embedded JSON-LD, REST, MCP, and /llms.txt.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/anthropic-removes-paid-plan-access-for-fable-5-byptptpt-20260713185755110/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/anthropic-removes-paid-plan-access-for-fable-5-byptptpt-20260713185755110 |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("anthropic-removes-paid-plan-access-for-fable-5-byptptpt-20260713185755110") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-07-23. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-DR0VQ5P2S5",
"slug": "anthropic-removes-paid-plan-access-for-fable-5-byptptpt-20260713185755110",
"question": "Will Anthropic remove paid plan access for Fable 5 by 2026-07-20?",
"category": "technology",
"tags": [
"technology",
"ai",
"anthropic",
"product-discontinuation",
"claude-fable",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 2,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 44188,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "C",
"rcg_score": 46,
"rcg_caps": [
"multi_source_no_conflict_rule",
"commitment_uncommitted_placeholder"
],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://x.com/claudeai/status/2076351399999557669",
"source_status": "no_committed_source",
"source_of_record": null,
"resolution_source_list": [
{
"name": "x.com",
"url": "https://x.com/claudeai/status/2076351399999557669",
"provenance": "platform_api"
},
{
"name": "official information from Anthropic",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
{
"name": "a consensus of credible reporting",
"url": null,
"provenance": "clearmarket_editorial"
}
],
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}