Will Argentina's official USD exchange rate exceed 1,500 pesos per dollar by December 31, 2026? [ resolves 2026-12-31 (211D) ]
polymarket: [B] single source·objective outcome methodology ›
distribution · by strike
polymarket 6 markets
| market | resolves | P(YES) | vol (24h) | vol (cum) | RCG | venue id | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ $1,600 | 2026-12-31 | 53.0% | — | $2.0K | B | 0xb6e308…fd4f | ||
| $1,600 | 2026-12-31 | 20.0% | — | $1.5K | B | 0x6d08b8…7604 | ||
| $1,700 | 2026-12-31 | 17.1% | — | $1.2K | B | 0xf75e7c…4506 | ||
| $1,800 | 2026-12-31 | 6.6% | — | $1.1K | B | 0x69c936…e4c9 | ||
| $1,900 | 2026-12-31 | 2.3% | — | $11K | B | 0xf64f0c…484b | ||
| ≥ $2,000 | 2026-12-31 | 2.7% | — | $1.4K | B | 0xe9d267…6b51 |
resolution architecture
| venue | proposer | source | citation | arbitration | class | analyst notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| polymarket | Whitelisted Proposers | uncommitted | not provided | Optimistic Oracle (UMA) | Other | — |
verbatim rules
polymarket
This is a market about Argentina’s official wholesale U.S. dollar exchange rate at market close on the last business day of December 2026, as published by the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA).
This market will resolve according to the official wholesale USD to ARS exchange rate (Tipo de Cambio Mayorista, ($ por USD) Com. A 3500 | Referencia) at market close on the final business day of December 2026, as published by the BCRA on its official website (https://www.bcra.gob.ar/).
If the official rate for that date has not been published by the end of the 7th day after the end of the specified month, the market will resolve according to the most recently published official wholesale rate preceding that date.
The resolution source for this market will be the official BCRA publication. Resolution will occur once this figure is available.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA), which reports the Wholesale Exchange Rate to two decimal points (e.g., 1,408.02 ARS per USD). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
platform source field
polymarket.resolutionSource → ∅ no committed source — see rules text above recent wire items
monitoring status: active no active wire
No CM Signal wire has been published for this event yet.
CM Signal’s news-cycle scan surfaces the day’s top stories alongside the prediction markets pricing them. When a story references this event, its wire is published here and links back to this page.
programmatic access · four surfaces, same payload
AI grounded search reads embedded JSON-LD in HTML. Developers query REST. Agentic AI clients (Claude Desktop, Cursor) call MCP tools. AI crawlers index via /llms.txt. Same canonical record at every surface.
| HTML | browsers, AI grounded search, crawlers (embedded JSON-LD @type: Dataset) | https://clearmarket.fyi/events/argentina-official-usd-exchange-rate-end-of-2026-higher-brackets/ |
| JSON | REST API for developers | https://api.clearmarket.fyi/v1/events/argentina-official-usd-exchange-rate-end-of-2026-higher-brackets.json |
| MCP | agentic AI tool call (Claude Desktop, Cursor, Continue) | clearmarket.get_event("argentina-official-usd-exchange-rate-end-of-2026-higher-brackets") |
| AGENT | AI crawler discovery index | /llms.txt |
Snapshot 2026-06-03. Venue data via Kalshi + Polymarket APIs. Editorial fields (tags, editorial_notes) are ClearMarket-drafted with AI assistance under editorial review. Derived fields (venues_covered, resolution_clarity_grade, rcg_score) computed at serve time. Full per-field map in the JSON record under field_provenance.
raw JSON record · same payload returned by REST endpoint {
"event_id": "CM-EVT-GX1DGQF2Q8",
"slug": "argentina-official-usd-exchange-rate-end-of-2026-higher-brackets",
"question": "Will Argentina's official USD exchange rate exceed 1,500 pesos per dollar by December 31, 2026?",
"category": "economics",
"tags": [
"economics",
"economy",
"argentina",
"currency-exchange",
"forex",
"2026"
],
"venues_covered": [
"polymarket"
],
"market_count": 6,
"cumulative_volume_usd": 18523,
"resolution_clarity_grade": "B",
"rcg_score": 74,
"rcg_caps": [],
"resolution_source": null,
"resolution_source_url": "https://www.bcra.gob.ar/",
"arbitration_model": "uma_oracle",
"proposer_model": "managed_whitelist",
"field_provenance": {
"question": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial"
},
"tags": {
"source": "clearmarket_editorial",
"ai_drafted": true
},
"resolution_clarity_grade": {
"source": "derived",
"method": "rcg_v2_7factor"
},
"venues_covered": {
"source": "derived"
}
}
}